Allsvenskan
Finished
Medium risk

Gais vs Malmo FF

01Full time
Sun, Aug 16, 02:30 PMGamla Ullevi

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 70/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Gais (WLDWL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.2 for Malmo FF (DLWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence
70/100

Strongest cover

12

73.4% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

G win44.2%
Draw26.6%
MF win29.2%

Goals

Over 1.576.7%
Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Gais

7/15 recent form points

WLDWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.24
Shots on target
Unavailable

Malmo FF

7/15 recent form points

DLWLW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.88
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/8 and Over 2.5 in 3/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Gais 0-1 Malmo FF

2026-08-16T16:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Malmo FF 3-1 Gais

2026-04-12T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Malmo FF 2-1 Gais

2025-11-09T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Gais 0-0 Malmo FF

2025-07-05T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Gais 0-0 Malmo FF

2024-09-18T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Malmo FF 1-0 Gais

2024-05-16T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Malmo FF 5-1 Gais

2022-02-20T15:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Gais 1-0 Malmo FF

2021-03-01T19:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Gais at home have been relatively solid defensively, with 7 clean sheets in 17 matches and 16 goals conceded overall. Their scoring output is modest at 21 goals, and their recent run alternates results (WLDWL), suggesting they can be competitive but not consistently dominant. Malmo FF’s away profile is more attack-oriented, with 32 goals scored in 17 matches, but they also concede 27 overall and have only 5 clean sheets. Their recent form (DLWLW) includes both setbacks and wins, which fits a game where they can score but may not fully control the match. With Gais conceding 16 and Malmo conceding 27 across the season, the matchup leans toward both sides finding goals. The probabilities provided support this, with both teams to score at 55.8% and over 2.5 goals at 51.9%, indicating a slight edge rather than a strong certainty. The draw and lower win probabilities for either side (44.2% home win, 26.6% draw, 29.2% away win) also align with a scenario where scoring is shared. That’s why BTTS Yes looks like the most reasonable call here, with medium risk given the relatively close goal and result profiles.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 48.3%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

Team hubs: Gais predictions · Malmo FF predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.