Finished

Medium risk

Fram vs Sarpsborg 08 II

3–0Full time

Mon, Aug 17, 04:00 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 60/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Fram (DWLLW) project at 2 expected goals versus 1.6 for Sarpsborg 08 II (LLDWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 60/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

60/100

Confidence

60/100

Strongest cover

78.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

F win36.2%

Draw21.4%

S0I win42.4%

Goals

Over 1.588.3%

Over 2.576.1%

Under 2.523.9%

Both teams to score

Yes74.5%

No25.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Fram

7/15 recent form points

DWLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Sarpsborg 08 II

4/15 recent form points

LLDWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.13
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/5 and Over 2.5 in 3/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 17, 12:00 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sarpsborg 08 II 2-1 Fram

2026-06-20T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sarpsborg 08 II 2-3 Fram

2025-08-11T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Fram 3-0 Sarpsborg 08 II

2025-06-14T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Fram 2-0 Sarpsborg 08 II

2022-08-08T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sarpsborg 08 II 1-1 Fram

2022-06-27T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +11.1%	4.50	22.2%	21.4%	-0.8%
	Betfair	4.50	22.2%	21.4%	-0.8%
	10Bet	3.95	25.3%	21.4%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	3.86	25.9%	21.4%	-4.5%
	Unibet	3.80	26.3%	21.4%	-4.9%
	William Hill	3.70	27.0%	21.4%	-5.6%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +8.5%	2.75	36.4%	36.2%	-0.2%
	Unibet	2.63	38.0%	36.2%	-1.8%
	Marathonbet	2.60	38.5%	36.2%	-2.3%
	William Hill	2.45	40.8%	36.2%	-4.6%
	Bet365	2.40	41.7%	36.2%	-5.5%
	10Bet	2.38	42.0%	36.2%	-5.8%
Away 1X2	10BetBest price +6.9%	2.25	44.4%	42.4%	-2.0%
	William Hill	2.20	45.5%	42.4%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.13	46.9%	42.4%	-4.5%
	Bet365	2.10	47.6%	42.4%	-5.2%
	Unibet	2.04	49.0%	42.4%	-6.6%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	42.4%	-10.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +14.9%	4.50	22.2%	23.9%	+1.7%
	Marathonbet	3.82	26.2%	23.9%	-2.3%
	Bet365	3.75	26.7%	23.9%	-2.8%
	Unibet	3.60	27.8%	23.9%	-3.9%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.0%	1.25	80.0%	76.1%	-3.9%
	Unibet	1.21	82.6%	76.1%	-6.5%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	76.1%	-8.6%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	76.1%	-9.4%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +3.3%	3.78	26.5%	25.5%	-1.0%
	Betfair	3.70	27.0%	25.5%	-1.5%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	25.5%	-3.1%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.4%	1.25	80.0%	74.5%	-5.5%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	74.5%	-5.5%
	Marathonbet	1.20	83.3%	74.5%	-8.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +7.7%	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Bet365	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	10Bet	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	Marathonbet	1.56	64.1%	0.0%	-64.1%
	Unibet	1.56	64.1%	0.0%	-64.1%
	William Hill	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +6.4%	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Bet365	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Marathonbet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Unibet	1.34	74.6%	0.0%	-74.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.2%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	10Bet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%

Model reasoning

Fram at home have scored 24 goals in 16 matches and conceded 34, with only 3 clean sheets. Their recent form includes two wins but also two losses in the last five results (DWLLW), suggesting they can struggle to keep games controlled even when playing at home. Sarpsborg 08 II away have scored 34 goals in 16 matches and conceded 39, with just 2 clean sheets. Their recent run is mixed (LLDWL), but the overall goal numbers point to a tendency for matches to include scoring rather than staying tight. With both teams’ season totals showing relatively high goals conceded and limited clean sheets, the matchup profile leans toward more open play. That aligns with the higher probability for over 2.5 goals (76.1%) and both teams to score (74.5%), even though the exact outcome is less certain given the close win/draw/away-win split. The away side has the edge in win probability (42.4% vs 36.2% for Fram), but the main signal here is scoring frequency rather than a clear winner. With a medium risk level and 60 confidence, the over 2.5 goals angle looks more supported than a single result.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-0

Pre-kickoff call

Over 2.5 Goals · 76.1%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

More predictions

All 3. Division - Girone 6 predictions →

Team hubs: Fram predictions · Sarpsborg 08 II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.