Alaves vs Villarreal

Alaves at home have a weaker overall record than Villarreal’s away record, but their recent form is more supportive, with LDWWL compared with Villarreal’s WDLLW. In goal terms, Alaves have scored 44 and conceded 56 across the season, while Villarreal have scored 72 and conceded 46, suggesting Villarreal’s attack is generally stronger, but their away results are less consistent. The expected goals figures point to a mismatch in how the teams create chances. Alaves’ expected goals for are much higher than Villarreal’s expected goals for (85.6 vs 29.2), while Villarreal’s expected goals against are also far higher than Alaves’ (74.7 vs 15.7). That combination supports the idea that Alaves may generate more quality chances at home, even if their defensive record is not dominant. The market-style probabilities align with a relatively close game: home win is 58.5% versus draw 22.9% and away win 18.6%. Over 2.5 goals is slightly more likely than not at 54.1%, and both teams to score is also just above even at 51.4%, which keeps the risk elevated rather than making the outcome feel secure. With a confidence score of 45 and a high risk level, the home win lean looks plausible but not robust. Villarreal’s season scoring output is strong, so if they manage to convert their chances, the match could swing toward a draw or away win despite the home-side chance creation edge.