Pre-match

High risk

Al Mesaimeer vs Muaither SC

Mon, Aug 24, 02:15 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 44/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Al Mesaimeer (WLLWL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.4 for Muaither SC (DWWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 44/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

44/100

Confidence

44/100

Strongest cover

75.0% probability

Risk classification

High

25.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

58 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AM win35.3%

Draw25%

MS win39.7%

Goals

Over 1.582.4%

Over 2.557.5%

Under 2.542.5%

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%

No39.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al Mesaimeer

6/15 recent form points

WLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.36
Shots on target: Unavailable

Muaither SC

10/15 recent form points

DWWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.86
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 23, 09:17 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al Mesaimeer 1-3 Muaither SC

2026-04-30T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Muaither SC 4-1 Al Mesaimeer

2026-01-21T16:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Muaither SC 0-1 Al Mesaimeer

2025-12-30T15:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Mesaimeer 0-1 Muaither SC

2025-02-21T16:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Muaither SC 1-1 Al Mesaimeer

2024-10-25T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Mesaimeer 2-0 Muaither SC

2024-03-02T01:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Muaither SC 2-0 Al Mesaimeer

2023-03-14T16:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Mesaimeer 2-2 Muaither SC

2023-01-27T01:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Mesaimeer 1-1 Muaither SC

2022-09-11T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Muaither SC 1-0 Al Mesaimeer

2022-03-13T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +6.5%	3.70	27.0%	25.0%	-2.0%
	Unibet	3.60	27.8%	25.0%	-2.8%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	25.0%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	3.46	28.9%	25.0%	-3.9%
	1xBet	3.46	28.9%	25.0%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	3.13	31.9%	25.0%	-6.9%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +1.9%	2.60	38.5%	35.3%	-3.2%
	Betfair	2.60	38.5%	35.3%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	2.58	38.8%	35.3%	-3.5%
	1xBet	2.58	38.8%	35.3%	-3.5%
	Unibet	2.55	39.2%	35.3%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	2.40	41.7%	35.3%	-6.4%
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +2.1%	2.29	43.7%	39.7%	-4.0%
	1xBet	2.29	43.7%	39.7%	-4.0%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	39.7%	-4.7%
	Betfair	2.25	44.4%	39.7%	-4.7%
	Unibet	2.23	44.8%	39.7%	-5.1%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	39.7%	-6.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.6%	2.25	44.4%	42.5%	-1.9%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	42.5%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.17	46.1%	42.5%	-3.6%
	1xBet	2.17	46.1%	42.5%	-3.6%
	Unibet	2.08	48.1%	42.5%	-5.6%
	BetVictor	1.91	52.4%	42.5%	-9.9%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.3%	1.62	61.7%	57.5%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.60	62.5%	57.5%	-5.0%
	Unibet	1.60	62.5%	57.5%	-5.0%
	Betfair	1.60	62.5%	57.5%	-5.0%
	1xBet	1.60	62.5%	57.5%	-5.0%
	BetVictor	1.48	67.6%	57.5%	-10.1%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +4.7%	2.36	42.4%	39.8%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	2.31	43.3%	39.8%	-3.5%
	Unibet	2.25	44.4%	39.8%	-4.6%
	Betfair	2.25	44.4%	39.8%	-4.6%
	BetVictor	2.10	47.6%	39.8%	-7.8%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +4.9%	1.57	63.7%	60.2%	-3.5%
	Unibet	1.55	64.5%	60.2%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	1.50	66.7%	60.2%	-6.5%
	1xBet	1.50	66.7%	60.2%	-6.5%
	BetVictor	1.36	73.5%	60.2%	-13.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.0%	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	Bet365	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	BetVictor	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Marathonbet	1.49	67.1%	0.0%	-67.1%
	1xBet	1.49	67.1%	0.0%	-67.1%
	Unibet	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.0%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Bet365	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	BetVictor	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Marathonbet	1.39	71.9%	0.0%	-71.9%
	1xBet	1.39	71.9%	0.0%	-71.9%
	Unibet	1.37	73.0%	0.0%	-73.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.3%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	1xBet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Unibet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	BetVictor	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%

Model reasoning

Al Mesaimeer at home have been fairly even in results, with 5 wins and 7 losses from 14 matches, and they’ve scored 19 while conceding 21. Their clean sheets are limited to 4, and their recent run includes both wins and losses (WLLWL), which suggests they can be competitive but not consistently shut opponents out. Muaither SC away have a slightly stronger overall record (6W 3D 5L) and they score more than Al Mesaimeer (26 vs 19), though they also concede a similar amount of goals (28). Their away clean sheets are very low (1), and their recent form (DWWLW) points to the ability to score, even if defensive control isn’t guaranteed. With both teams’ low clean-sheet counts and relatively close goal totals conceded, the matchup profile leans toward goals at both ends. The probabilities provided support this, with both teams to score at 60.2% and over 2.5 goals at 57.5%, so BTTS Yes fits better than a more one-sided outcome. The confidence is modest (44) and the risk is high, since neither side dominates in defensive terms and the match could still settle into a draw or a single-team scoring pattern. Still, the statistical balance in scoring and conceding makes BTTS Yes the most aligned call among the given options.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Al Mesaimeer predictions · Muaither SC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.