Pre-match

High risk

Kokand-1912 vs Buxoro

Mon, Aug 24, 02:00 PM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 67/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Kokand-1912 (LLDWW) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.3 for Buxoro (LWDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 67/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

67/100

Confidence

67/100

Strongest cover

70.0% probability

Risk classification

High

30.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

K win37%

Draw30%

B win33%

Goals

Over 1.571.5%

Over 2.542.9%

Under 2.557.1%

Both teams to score

Yes50%

No50%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Kokand-1912

7/15 recent form points

LLDWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.89
Shots on target: Unavailable

Buxoro

10/15 recent form points

LWDWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/10 and Over 2.5 in 2/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 23, 08:19 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Buxoro 1-0 Kokand-1912

2026-02-27T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Buxoro 1-0 Kokand-1912

2025-08-21T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kokand-1912 1-0 Buxoro

2025-04-12T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Buxoro 0-1 Kokand-1912

2024-10-18T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kokand-1912 0-1 Buxoro

2024-08-15T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Buxoro 0-0 Kokand-1912

2024-05-24T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kokand-1912 0-1 Buxoro

2024-03-19T01:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Buxoro 2-2 Kokand-1912

2020-09-11T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kokand-1912 3-0 Buxoro

2020-02-28T11:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Buxoro 0-1 Kokand-1912

2019-10-30T13:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +4.3%	3.10	32.3%	30.0%	-2.3%
	BetVictor	3.10	32.3%	30.0%	-2.3%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	30.0%	-3.3%
	Pinnacle	2.99	33.4%	30.0%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	2.89	34.6%	30.0%	-4.6%
	William Hill	2.75	36.4%	30.0%	-6.4%
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +5.8%	2.91	34.4%	33.0%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	2.81	35.6%	33.0%	-2.6%
	William Hill	2.80	35.7%	33.0%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	2.75	36.4%	33.0%	-3.4%
	Betfair	2.63	38.0%	33.0%	-5.0%
	Bet365	2.60	38.5%	33.0%	-5.5%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +2.2%	2.50	40.0%	37.0%	-3.0%
	Bet365	2.45	40.8%	37.0%	-3.8%
	Betfair	2.45	40.8%	37.0%	-3.8%
	BetVictor	2.45	40.8%	37.0%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	2.43	41.2%	37.0%	-4.2%
	William Hill	2.40	41.7%	37.0%	-4.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +2.1%	2.22	45.0%	42.9%	-2.1%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	42.9%	-2.6%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	42.9%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	2.15	46.5%	42.9%	-3.6%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	42.9%	-3.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.6%	1.67	59.9%	57.1%	-2.8%
	Pinnacle	1.64	61.0%	57.1%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	1.62	61.7%	57.1%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.61	62.1%	57.1%	-5.0%
	Betfair	1.60	62.5%	57.1%	-5.4%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.4%	1.87	53.5%	50.0%	-3.5%
	BetVictor	1.85	54.1%	50.0%	-4.1%
	William Hill	1.83	54.6%	50.0%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.83	54.6%	50.0%	-4.6%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.6%	1.87	53.5%	50.0%	-3.5%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	50.0%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	50.0%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.81	55.2%	50.0%	-5.2%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetVictorBest price +1.8%	1.47	68.0%	0.0%	-68.0%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Bet365	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Marathonbet	1.43	69.9%	0.0%	-69.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.8%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	BetVictor	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Marathonbet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.3%	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	BetVictor	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Marathonbet	1.31	76.3%	0.0%	-76.3%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%

Model reasoning

Kokand-1912 have scored 16 goals in 18 matches and conceded 25, with 5 clean sheets, which suggests they can keep games relatively controlled at times. Their recent form is mixed (LLDWW), and the overall goal output is modest for a home side. Buxoro have scored 27 and conceded 19 in 18 matches, with 6 clean sheets, and their recent form (LWDWW) points to better attacking consistency than Kokand-1912. Still, their conceded total is not high, which can limit the number of goals even when they are winning. With Kokand-1912 averaging about 0.9 goals scored per match and 1.4 conceded, and Buxoro around 1.5 scored and 1.1 conceded, the matchup profile leans toward fewer goals rather than a high-scoring shootout. The probabilities provided also support this, with over 2.5 goals at 42.9% and both teams to score at 50.0%, making Under 2.5 a reasonable lean despite the fairly close win/draw/away split. Confidence is moderate (67) but risk is high, since the game could still turn into a low-to-mid scoring match that ends with one team scoring twice, pushing it over 2.5.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.