Pre-match

Medium risk

KAMAZ vs FC Sochi

Mon, Aug 24, 02:30 PMKAMAZ Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 62/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

KAMAZ (LDLDL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.6 for FC Sochi (WLWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 62/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

62/100

Confidence

62/100

Strongest cover

76.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

46 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

K win23.1%

Draw26.4%

FS win50.5%

Goals

Over 1.577.1%

Over 2.546.1%

Under 2.553.9%

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%

No50.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

KAMAZ

2/15 recent form points

LDLDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.86
Shots on target: Unavailable

FC Sochi

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.86
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/3 and Over 2.5 in 0/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 24, 12:46 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

FC Sochi 1-1 KAMAZ

2025-02-21T09:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Sochi 2-0 KAMAZ

2024-12-01T13:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

KAMAZ 1-0 FC Sochi

2024-10-27T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +7.5%	4.16	24.0%	23.1%	-0.9%
	Pinnacle	4.14	24.2%	23.1%	-1.1%
	Marathonbet	4.05	24.7%	23.1%	-1.6%
	Dafabet	3.80	26.3%	23.1%	-3.2%
	Superbet	3.70	27.0%	23.1%	-3.9%
	SBO	3.36	29.8%	23.1%	-6.7%
Draw 1X2	1xBetBest price +5.5%	3.58	27.9%	26.4%	-1.5%
	Pinnacle	3.56	28.1%	26.4%	-1.7%
	Marathonbet	3.48	28.7%	26.4%	-2.3%
	Dafabet	3.40	29.4%	26.4%	-3.0%
	Superbet	3.35	29.9%	26.4%	-3.5%
	SBO	2.99	33.4%	26.4%	-7.0%
Away 1X2	SuperbetBest price +2.0%	1.92	52.1%	50.5%	-1.6%
	Dafabet	1.90	52.6%	50.5%	-2.1%
	1xBet	1.89	52.9%	50.5%	-2.4%
	Pinnacle	1.88	53.2%	50.5%	-2.7%
	SBO	1.86	53.8%	50.5%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	1.84	54.3%	50.5%	-3.8%
Over 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +1.8%	2.09	47.8%	46.1%	-1.7%
	Pinnacle	2.08	48.1%	46.1%	-2.0%
	Marathonbet	2.05	48.8%	46.1%	-2.7%
	SBO	2.03	49.3%	46.1%	-3.2%
	Superbet	2.02	49.5%	46.1%	-3.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +1.6%	1.76	56.8%	53.9%	-2.9%
	Pinnacle	1.75	57.1%	53.9%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	1.73	57.8%	53.9%	-3.9%
	SBO	1.73	57.8%	53.9%	-3.9%
	Superbet	1.69	59.2%	53.9%	-5.3%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +2.1%	1.92	52.1%	49.4%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	1.86	53.8%	49.4%	-4.4%
	1xBet	1.86	53.8%	49.4%	-4.4%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.5%	1.84	54.3%	50.6%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	50.6%	-4.3%
	Superbet	1.78	56.2%	50.6%	-5.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	1xBetBest price +3.0%	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	0.0%	-53.5%
	SBO	1.87	53.5%	0.0%	-53.5%
	Superbet	1.77	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +2.8%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Superbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	SBO	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +2.3%	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
	Superbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	SBO	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%

Model reasoning

FC Sochi look more likely to win away. Their record is stronger at 4W 1D 2L compared with KAMAZ’s 0W 2D 5L, and Sochi have scored 13 goals versus KAMAZ’s 6. Sochi also concede less overall (8 vs 13), which supports the away-win lean. The recent form also favors FC Sochi. KAMAZ’s last five results are LDLDL, showing they have not been able to turn matches into wins, while Sochi’s recent run is WLWWW, indicating consistent positive results. For goals, the match is slightly uncertain. Over 2.5 goals is at 46.1%, and both teams to score is at 49.4%, so there’s no clear dominance in scoring patterns, even though Sochi’s overall goal output is higher. With an away win probability of 50.5% and a medium risk level, the edge is modest rather than decisive. If you’re looking for a secondary angle, the close BTTS and over/under probabilities suggest a fairly balanced scoring script is plausible alongside the away result.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 24 Aug 2026 01:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: KAMAZ predictions · FC Sochi predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.