Pro League
Finished
High risk

Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

13Full time
Thu, Aug 13, 06:00 PMAl-Shabab Club Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 50/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Away Win

Al Shabab (LLLWL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.8 for Al-Qadisiyah FC (WWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 50/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

50/100

Confidence
50/100

Strongest cover

X2

79.1% probability

Risk classification

High

22.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AS win20.9%
Draw22.2%
AF win56.9%

Goals

Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al Shabab

3/15 recent form points

LLLWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.29
Shots on target
Unavailable

Al-Qadisiyah FC

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.44
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2026-08-13T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al Shabab

2026-04-14T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Shabab 2-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2025-12-31T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Shabab 2-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2025-02-13T16:25:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al Shabab

2024-09-15T17:20:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2021-03-05T15:35:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 Al Shabab

2020-12-16T15:25:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Al Shabab

2020-12-06T14:25:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al Shabab

2019-02-22T15:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Shabab 2-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2018-10-26T17:05:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Al-Qadisiyah FC look stronger in the season profile, with a much better record of 23W 8D 3L compared with Al Shabab’s 8W 11D 15L. They also have a clear edge in both scoring and defending, netting 83 goals while conceding 34, whereas Al Shabab scored 44 and conceded 57. The recent form supports that direction as well. Al Shabab’s last five results are LLLWL, showing inconsistency, while Al-Qadisiyah’s are WWWWW, indicating strong momentum going into the match. The goal-related probabilities point toward an open game. With 59.0% for over 2.5 goals and 59.8% for both teams to score, the matchup profile suggests Al-Qadisiyah’s attack and Al Shabab’s defensive record could combine for goals on both sides. Given the away win probability of 56.9% and the relatively high risk level, the edge is meaningful but not dominant. A draw remains plausible at 22.2%, so the away win case is supported more by overall quality and form than by complete control.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-3

Pre-kickoff call

Away Win · 56.9% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1147 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:00 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Al Shabab predictions · Al-Qadisiyah FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.