Pro League
Finished
High risk

Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC

03Full time
Thu, Aug 20, 06:00 PMAl Majma'ah Sport City

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 52/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Away Win

Al-Fayha (DWLLL) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 1.8 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC (WWDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 52/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

52/100

Confidence
52/100

Strongest cover

X2

80.9% probability

Risk classification

High

22.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win19.1%
Draw22.7%
ASF win58.2%

Goals

Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

Both teams to score

Yes56%
No44%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al-Fayha

4/15 recent form points

DWLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.21
Shots on target
Unavailable

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

13/15 recent form points

WWDWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.50
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al-Fayha 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2026-08-20T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2026-05-21T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-1 Al-Fayha

2026-01-22T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Fayha 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2025-03-07T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Fayha

2024-10-18T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Fayha 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2023-12-29T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Fayha

2023-08-19T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Fayha 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2023-04-04T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2023-01-26T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Fayha

2022-08-31T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Al-Hilal Saudi FC look more likely to win away, with their record showing 25 wins and no losses across 34 matches, compared with Al-Fayha’s 10 wins and 16 losses at home. The win probabilities also lean strongly toward Al-Hilal, with 58.2% for an away win versus 19.1% for a home win and 22.7% for a draw. Defensively, Al-Hilal’s season numbers are notably stronger, conceding 27 goals versus Al-Fayha’s 54. Al-Hilal also have more clean sheets (16) than Al-Fayha (7), which supports the idea that Al-Fayha may struggle to score consistently. In attack, Al-Hilal have the edge as well, scoring 85 goals compared with Al-Fayha’s 41. That gap aligns with the goal-related probabilities, where over 2.5 goals is favored at 55.2% and both teams to score is slightly more likely at 56.0%, suggesting a match where Al-Hilal can score while Al-Fayha may still find chances. The confidence is only moderate (52) and the risk is high, which fits Al-Fayha’s recent form of DWLLL and the fact that the draw is still relatively plausible at 22.7%.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-3

Pre-kickoff call

Away Win · 58.2%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

Team hubs: Al-Fayha predictions · Al-Hilal Saudi FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.