Pre-match

High risk

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

Sat, Sep 19, 04:30 PMMHPArena

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 51/100

Model verdict

High risk

Over 2.5 Goals

VfB Stuttgart (LDDWD) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.9 for Borussia Dortmund (LWLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 51/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

51/100

Confidence

51/100

Strongest cover

77.5% probability

Risk classification

High

22.5% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

VS win40.9%

Draw22.5%

BD win36.6%

Goals

Over 1.589.5%

Over 2.572.7%

Under 2.527.3%

Both teams to score

Yes72.5%

No27.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

VfB Stuttgart

6/15 recent form points

LDDWD

xG / match: 2.39
xGA / match: 3.47
Goals / match: 2.09
Shots on target: Unavailable

Borussia Dortmund

9/15 recent form points

LWLWW

xG / match: 1.67
xGA / match: 1.64
Goals / match: 2.06
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

VS derived xG

2.01

BD derived xG

2.57

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 4.58. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund

2026-04-04T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 3-3 VfB Stuttgart

2025-11-22T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 1-2 VfB Stuttgart

2025-02-08T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

VfB Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund

2024-09-22T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 0-1 VfB Stuttgart

2024-04-06T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

VfB Stuttgart 2-0 Borussia Dortmund

2023-12-06T20:45:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

2023-11-11T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

VfB Stuttgart 3-3 Borussia Dortmund

2023-04-15T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 5-0 VfB Stuttgart

2022-10-22T15:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund

2022-04-08T20:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Over 2.5 Goals lean for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

More predictions

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Team hubs: VfB Stuttgart predictions · Borussia Dortmund predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.