Pre-match

High risk

Ventura County vs Portland Timbers II

Mon, Aug 24, 02:00 AMDignity Health Sports Park

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 66/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Ventura County (LWWWW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.3 for Portland Timbers II (WWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 66/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

66/100

Confidence

66/100

Strongest cover

75.8% probability

Risk classification

High

24.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

46 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

VC win36.2%

Draw24.2%

PTI win39.6%

Goals

Over 1.579.9%

Over 2.564.7%

Under 2.535.3%

Both teams to score

Yes67.3%

No32.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Ventura County

12/15 recent form points

LWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.18
Shots on target: Unavailable

Portland Timbers II

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.48
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 23, 08:17 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Portland Timbers II 3-3 Ventura County

2026-05-10T22:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Portland Timbers II 0-0 Ventura County

2026-03-24T03:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Ventura County 2-2 Portland Timbers II

2025-08-10T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Portland Timbers II 2-3 Ventura County

2025-06-12T04:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ventura County 2-3 Portland Timbers II

2025-04-24T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Portland Timbers II 2-1 Ventura County

2024-09-18T04:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ventura County 0-0 Portland Timbers II

2024-07-22T04:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Portland Timbers II 3-3 Ventura County

2024-06-10T02:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Portland Timbers II 6-1 Ventura County

2023-08-10T04:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ventura County 2-0 Portland Timbers II

2023-05-22T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +4.6%	3.78	26.5%	24.2%	-2.3%
	10Bet	3.70	27.0%	24.2%	-2.8%
	Bet365	3.70	27.0%	24.2%	-2.8%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	24.2%	-3.6%
	Unibet	3.50	28.6%	24.2%	-4.4%
	William Hill	3.40	29.4%	24.2%	-5.2%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +5.4%	2.65	37.7%	36.2%	-1.5%
	10Bet	2.50	40.0%	36.2%	-3.8%
	William Hill	2.50	40.0%	36.2%	-3.8%
	Betfair	2.50	40.0%	36.2%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	2.48	40.3%	36.2%	-4.1%
	Bet365	2.45	40.8%	36.2%	-4.6%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +2.0%	2.30	43.5%	39.6%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.30	43.5%	39.6%	-3.9%
	10Bet	2.25	44.4%	39.6%	-4.8%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	39.6%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	2.25	44.4%	39.6%	-4.8%
	Unibet	2.18	45.9%	39.6%	-6.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +5.8%	2.78	36.0%	35.3%	-0.7%
	Bet365	2.62	38.2%	35.3%	-2.9%
	Unibet	2.48	40.3%	35.3%	-5.0%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.6%	1.44	69.4%	64.7%	-4.7%
	Unibet	1.43	69.9%	64.7%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	1.34	74.6%	64.7%	-9.9%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +2.3%	2.88	34.7%	32.7%	-2.0%
	William Hill	2.75	36.4%	32.7%	-3.7%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.1%	1.36	73.5%	67.3%	-6.2%
	Marathonbet	1.33	75.2%	67.3%	-7.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.0%	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Bet365	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Betfair	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Marathonbet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Unibet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +3.7%	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Bet365	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Marathonbet	1.42	70.4%	0.0%	-70.4%
	Unibet	1.34	74.6%	0.0%	-74.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.2%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Unibet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Portland Timbers II look slightly more likely to take points away, with a stronger win rate (16W in 23) than Ventura County at home (14W in 22). Ventura County’s recent run is mixed-to-strong (LWWWW), while Portland’s form is very strong (WWWWW), which supports a competitive match rather than a one-sided result. The goal profile leans toward both teams scoring. Ventura County have conceded 30 in 22 matches and kept 7 clean sheets, while Portland have conceded 27 in 23 and kept 12 clean sheets, suggesting Portland can defend well but not consistently enough to shut out Ventura. The combined indicator for both teams to score is high at 67.3%, with over 2.5 goals also favored at 64.7%. Given the relatively close win probabilities (away win 39.6% vs home win 36.2%) and the strong scoring likelihood, BTTS Yes fits the matchup. The confidence is moderate (66) but the risk is high, since Portland’s clean-sheet count (12) means there is still a meaningful chance the game ends with only one team scoring.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:38 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.