Pre-match

Medium risk

Aryan vs Rainbow

Mon, Aug 24, 09:30 AM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 68/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Aryan (WDDDW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 0.9 for Rainbow (LLLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 68/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

68/100

Confidence

68/100

Strongest cover

77.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

4 sources

36 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win53.2%

Draw24.7%

R win22.1%

Goals

Over 1.576.2%

Over 2.551.5%

Under 2.548.5%

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%

No46.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Aryan

9/15 recent form points

WDDDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Rainbow

3/15 recent form points

LLLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.38
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 23, 09:08 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Rainbow 4-0 Aryan

2025-07-02T11:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Aryan 1-0 Rainbow

2023-08-31T11:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +3.0%	4.00	25.0%	22.1%	-2.9%
	1xBet	3.93	25.4%	22.1%	-3.3%
	Bet365	3.80	26.3%	22.1%	-4.2%
	Betano	3.80	26.3%	22.1%	-4.2%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +1.4%	3.60	27.8%	24.7%	-3.1%
	1xBet	3.60	27.8%	24.7%	-3.1%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	24.7%	-3.9%
	Betano	3.50	28.6%	24.7%	-3.9%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.7%	1.80	55.6%	53.2%	-2.4%
	Betano	1.78	56.2%	53.2%	-3.0%
	Bet365	1.75	57.1%	53.2%	-3.9%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	53.2%	-3.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.8%	1.95	51.3%	48.5%	-2.8%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	48.5%	-3.9%
	1xBet	1.90	52.6%	48.5%	-4.1%
	Betano	1.90	52.6%	48.5%	-4.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.8%	1.85	54.1%	51.5%	-2.6%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	51.5%	-4.1%
	1xBet	1.80	55.6%	51.5%	-4.1%
	Betano	1.75	57.1%	51.5%	-5.6%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +2.0%	2.03	49.3%	46.9%	-2.4%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	46.9%	-4.4%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price	1.75	57.1%	53.1%	-4.0%
	1xBet	1.75	57.1%	53.1%	-4.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +1.8%	1.93	51.8%	0.0%	-51.8%
	Bet365	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Betano	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +0.8%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betano	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	1xBet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +1.0%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betano	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	1xBet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Aryan at home has a stronger defensive profile than Rainbow, with 5 clean sheets in 8 matches and only 5 goals conceded overall. Their recent form is mixed but includes two wins in the last five results (WDDDW), while Rainbow’s recent run is heavily negative (LLLLW) and they have not kept a clean sheet all season. In attack, Rainbow has scored 11 goals in 8 matches, which is more than Aryan’s 8, but their 18 goals conceded suggests they are more vulnerable when games open up. Aryan’s goal difference edge (8 scored vs 5 conceded) supports the idea that they can control the match better, even if Rainbow can still create chances. The market-style probabilities align with a slight home advantage: home win is 53.2% versus 22.1% for Rainbow, with a draw at 24.7%. For goals, over 2.5 is just above coin-flip at 51.5%, and both teams to score is also slightly favored at 53.1%, indicating a reasonable chance that Rainbow finds a goal despite their poor clean-sheet record. Overall, the home win call fits the defensive gap and Aryan’s better results, but the moderate confidence (68) and the relatively high both-teams-to-score probability keep the risk at a medium level rather than high.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:03 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Aryan predictions · Rainbow predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.