Tromsø U19 vs Lillestrøm U19

13Full time
Thu, Aug 20, 11:00 AM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 65/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Tromsø U19 (WWDWL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.9 for Lillestrøm U19 (WWLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 65/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

65/100

Confidence
65/100

Strongest cover

12

81.2% probability

Risk classification

Medium

18.8% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

4 sources

27 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

TU win30.6%
Draw18.8%
LU win50.6%

Goals

Over 1.588.8%
Over 2.581%
Under 2.519%

Both teams to score

Yes76.8%
No23.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Tromsø U19

10/15 recent form points

WWDWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.22
Shots on target
Unavailable

Lillestrøm U19

12/15 recent form points

WWLWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
3.44
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/8 and Over 2.5 in 7/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 20, 08:10 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Tromsø U19 1-3 Lillestrøm U19

2026-08-20T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lillestrøm U19 3-2 Tromsø U19

2026-03-11T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tromsø U19 4-3 Lillestrøm U19

2025-03-09T12:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lillestrøm U19 3-1 Tromsø U19

2025-03-01T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tromsø U19 1-4 Lillestrøm U19

2023-04-05T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lillestrøm U19 2-0 Tromsø U19

2023-01-29T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Tromsø U19 2-2 Lillestrøm U19

2022-06-22T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lillestrøm U19 3-0 Tromsø U19

2022-05-28T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
PinnacleBest price +7.7%4.8220.7%18.8%-1.9%
Bet3654.7521.1%18.8%-2.3%
William Hill4.3323.1%18.8%-4.3%
BetVictor4.0025.0%18.8%-6.2%
Home
1X2
William HillBest price +1.7%2.9034.5%30.6%-3.9%
Bet3652.8834.7%30.6%-4.1%
Pinnacle2.8834.7%30.6%-4.1%
BetVictor2.7536.4%30.6%-5.8%
Away
1X2
William HillBest price +2.1%1.8055.6%50.6%-5.0%
Bet3651.8055.6%50.6%-5.0%
Pinnacle1.7557.1%50.6%-6.5%
BetVictor1.7058.8%50.6%-8.2%
Under 2.5
Totals
Bet3655.0020.0%19.0%-1.0%
Over 2.5
Totals
Bet3651.1487.7%81.0%-6.7%
No
BTTS
William HillBest price +21.1%4.8020.8%23.2%+2.4%
BetVictor3.1331.9%23.2%-8.7%
Yes
BTTS
William HillBest price +0.9%1.1587.0%76.8%-10.2%
BetVictor1.1388.5%76.8%-11.7%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
Bet365Best price +4.5%1.9551.3%0.0%-51.3%
William Hill1.8554.1%0.0%-54.1%
BetVictor1.8055.6%0.0%-55.6%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +6.1%1.3375.2%0.0%-75.2%
Bet3651.2878.1%0.0%-78.1%
BetVictor1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +4.2%1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Bet3651.1289.3%0.0%-89.3%
BetVictor1.0892.6%0.0%-92.6%

Model reasoning

Lillestrøm U19 look more productive in attack, with 31 goals in 9 matches compared to Tromsø U19’s 20. They also concede less overall, 15 goals against versus Tromsø’s 19, which supports a game where Lillestrøm can create enough chances to push the scoreline beyond a low total. Both teams’ profiles point toward scoring. Tromsø have scored in most of their matches but have no clean sheets, suggesting they often allow at least one goal. Lillestrøm have two clean sheets, yet their higher goal output and relatively low concession rate still align with a match where goals are likely at both ends. The goal-focused lean is reinforced by the matchup probabilities provided: over 2.5 goals at 81.0% and both teams to score at 76.8%. With Tromsø’s recent form including a mix of results and Lillestrøm’s stronger overall record, the expectation is for a relatively open game rather than a tight, low-scoring one. So the Over 2.5 Goals call fits best, with medium risk given that Tromsø can be inconsistent and Lillestrøm do have some defensive shutout ability. Confidence is moderate rather than high, but the supplied stats strongly favor at least three total goals.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-3

Pre-kickoff call

Over 2.5 Goals · 71.1% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.346 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Tromsø U19 predictions · Lillestrøm U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.