Pre-match

High risk

Suchitepéquez vs Guastatoya prediction

Thu, Sep 10, 02:10 AM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 56/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Suchitepéquez (LLLWL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.4 for Guastatoya (LWLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 56/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

56/100

Confidence

56/100

Strongest cover

74.7% probability

Risk classification

High

33.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

1 source

5 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

S win40.8%

Draw33.9%

G win25.3%

Goals

Over 1.575.2%

Over 2.531.1%

Under 2.568.9%

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%

No45.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Suchitepéquez

3/15 recent form points

LLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.86
Shots on target: Unavailable

Guastatoya

6/15 recent form points

LWLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.43
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Sep 09, 08:38 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Suchitepéquez 2-0 Guastatoya

2018-04-13T23:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Guastatoya 1-2 Suchitepéquez

2018-02-14T22:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Guastatoya 4-1 Suchitepéquez

2017-11-15T22:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Suchitepéquez 1-1 Guastatoya

2017-09-10T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Guastatoya 2-2 Suchitepéquez

2017-05-07T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Suchitepéquez 0-0 Guastatoya

2017-03-09T03:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Suchitepéquez 0-1 Guastatoya

2016-10-27T04:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Guastatoya 0-1 Suchitepéquez

2016-08-07T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Suchitepéquez 2-1 Guastatoya

2016-04-07T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Guastatoya 1-0 Suchitepéquez

2016-02-07T21:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	Pinnacle	3.38	29.6%	25.3%	-4.3%
Draw 1X2	Pinnacle	2.50	40.0%	33.9%	-6.1%
Home 1X2	Pinnacle	2.11	47.4%	40.8%	-6.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	Pinnacle	2.93	34.1%	31.1%	-3.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	Pinnacle	1.27	78.7%	68.9%	-9.8%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Suchitepéquez vs Guastatoya. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Suchitepéquez predictions · Guastatoya predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.