Premier League
Pre-match
High risk

Smouha SC vs Asyut Petrol

Wed, Aug 26, 02:00 PM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 45/100

Model verdict
High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Smouha SC (LLLLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for Asyut Petrol (D). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 45/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

45/100

Confidence
45/100

Strongest cover

1X

73.2% probability

Risk classification

High

28.9% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SS win44.3%
Draw28.9%
AP win26.8%

Goals

Over 1.567.5%
Over 2.540.2%
Under 2.559.8%

Both teams to score

Yes46.7%
No53.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Smouha SC

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.88
Shots on target
Unavailable

Asyut Petrol

1/3 recent form points

D
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
No H2H · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Smouha SC at home has a balanced but low-scoring profile, with 23 goals scored and 23 conceded across 26 matches, and 7 clean sheets. Their recent form is five straight losses, which can limit attacking output, even if it doesn’t guarantee a shutout. Asyut Petrol’s away sample is extremely small, with only one match played and a 1-1 scoreline. That gives limited signal, but it does not point strongly toward a high-scoring game. The probabilities lean toward fewer goals: over 2.5 goals is at 40.2%, while both teams to score is slightly more likely than not at 46.7%. With Smouha’s overall goals being even and Asyut’s limited away scoring data, Under 2.5 goals fits better than Over 2.5, though the confidence is modest (45) and the risk is high due to Asyut’s small sample size.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:02 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Smouha SC predictions · Asyut Petrol predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.