Finished

Medium risk

Lokomotiv vs Bunyodkor

4–1Full time

Wed, Aug 26, 02:00 PMLokomotiv Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 76/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Lokomotiv (LWLWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.1 for Bunyodkor (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Strongest cover

80.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

23.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

L win56.6%

Draw23.4%

B win20%

Goals

Over 1.579.3%

Over 2.558.3%

Under 2.541.7%

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%

No41.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Lokomotiv

9/15 recent form points

LWLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.68
Shots on target: Unavailable

Bunyodkor

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.11
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 26, 12:21 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Lokomotiv 4-1 Bunyodkor

2026-08-26T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bunyodkor 2-0 Lokomotiv

2026-04-02T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bunyodkor 0-1 Lokomotiv

2025-05-21T14:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lokomotiv 2-3 Bunyodkor

2024-10-19T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bunyodkor 3-2 Lokomotiv

2024-05-21T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bunyodkor 2-2 Lokomotiv

2022-08-21T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lokomotiv 0-0 Bunyodkor

2022-08-16T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bunyodkor 2-1 Lokomotiv

2022-03-18T14:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bunyodkor 3-2 Lokomotiv

2021-09-21T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lokomotiv 2-1 Bunyodkor

2021-04-16T15:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +2.8%	4.40	22.7%	20.0%	-2.7%
	10Bet	4.33	23.1%	20.0%	-3.1%
	Betfair	4.33	23.1%	20.0%	-3.1%
	BetVictor	4.33	23.1%	20.0%	-3.1%
	William Hill	4.20	23.8%	20.0%	-3.8%
	Bet365	4.10	24.4%	20.0%	-4.4%
Draw 1X2	BetVictorBest price +5.2%	3.90	25.6%	23.4%	-2.2%
	Betfair	3.80	26.3%	23.4%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	3.74	26.7%	23.4%	-3.3%
	10Bet	3.70	27.0%	23.4%	-3.6%
	Bet365	3.60	27.8%	23.4%	-4.4%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	23.4%	-5.2%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.9%	1.70	58.8%	56.6%	-2.2%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	56.6%	-3.3%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	56.6%	-4.0%
	BetVictor	1.65	60.6%	56.6%	-4.0%
	10Bet	1.62	61.7%	56.6%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.62	61.7%	56.6%	-5.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.3%	2.25	44.4%	41.7%	-2.7%
	Betfair	2.25	44.4%	41.7%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	2.25	44.4%	41.7%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	2.21	45.2%	41.7%	-3.5%
	10Bet	2.15	46.5%	41.7%	-4.8%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.7%	1.62	61.7%	58.3%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.58	63.3%	58.3%	-5.0%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	58.3%	-5.4%
	BetVictor	1.57	63.7%	58.3%	-5.4%
	10Bet	1.55	64.5%	58.3%	-6.2%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +2.3%	2.25	44.4%	41.9%	-2.5%
	William Hill	2.20	45.5%	41.9%	-3.6%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	41.9%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	2.15	46.5%	41.9%	-4.6%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.3%	1.60	62.5%	58.1%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	1.58	63.3%	58.1%	-5.2%
	William Hill	1.57	63.7%	58.1%	-5.6%
	BetVictor	1.57	63.7%	58.1%	-5.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +4.2%	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	BetVictor	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	William Hill	2.05	48.8%	0.0%	-48.8%
	Marathonbet	2.03	49.3%	0.0%	-49.3%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.7%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	BetVictor	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.0%	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	BetVictor	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	10Bet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%

Model reasoning

Lokomotiv at home look more solid across the season, with 9 wins from 19 matches and a positive goal record of 32 scored versus 26 conceded. Their recent form includes two wins in the last five games (LWLWW), which supports a stronger baseline than Bunyodkor’s away profile. Bunyodkor away have struggled, winning only 6 of 18 matches and losing 11, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. Their current run is very weak, with five straight losses (LLLLL), which lowers the likelihood they can consistently create or finish chances on the road. The matchup also leans toward goals, since Lokomotiv have scored 32 and conceded 26 overall, while Bunyodkor have conceded 28 and scored 20. That aligns with the probabilities for over 2.5 goals (58.3%) and both teams to score (58.1%), suggesting a game where scoring is likely at both ends. Putting it together, the home win case is supported by the home team’s better results and goal balance, while the draw remains plausible given the moderate goal margins. The overall confidence is medium (76) with home win at 56.6%, so the pick is reasonable but not definitive.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 62.3%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Team hubs: Lokomotiv predictions · Bunyodkor predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.