Pre-match

High risk

Dinamo Stavropol vs Astrakhan

Wed, Aug 26, 02:00 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 41/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Dinamo Stavropol (WL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.2 for Astrakhan (WWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 41/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

41/100

Confidence

41/100

Strongest cover

73.0% probability

Risk classification

High

27.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

2 sources

20 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

DS win45.4%

Draw27%

A win27.6%

Goals

Over 1.578.1%

Over 2.552.6%

Under 2.547.4%

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%

No43.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Dinamo Stavropol

3/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Astrakhan

6/9 recent form points

WWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/4 and Over 2.5 in 1/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 26, 08:43 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Dinamo Stavropol 1-1 Astrakhan

2025-06-25T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Astrakhan 1-1 Dinamo Stavropol

2025-04-09T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Astrakhan 0-2 Dinamo Stavropol

2024-10-12T13:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dinamo Stavropol 2-1 Astrakhan

2024-06-12T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price	3.28	30.5%	27.0%	-3.5%
	1xBet	3.28	30.5%	27.0%	-3.5%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.9%	3.24	30.9%	27.6%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	3.18	31.4%	27.6%	-3.8%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.5%	2.06	48.5%	45.4%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.04	49.0%	45.4%	-3.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.95	51.3%	47.4%	-3.9%
	1xBet	1.95	51.3%	47.4%	-3.9%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.76	56.8%	52.6%	-4.2%
	1xBet	1.76	56.8%	52.6%	-4.2%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.9%	2.15	46.5%	43.2%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.11	47.4%	43.2%	-4.2%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.62	61.7%	56.8%	-4.9%
	1xBet	1.62	61.7%	56.8%	-4.9%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	1xBet	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	1xBet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	1xBet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%

Model reasoning

Dinamo Stavropol at home has been evenly matched in its two cup matches, scoring 3 and conceding 3 with no clean sheets. Astrakhan’s away record is stronger overall, with 2 wins from 3 and 6 goals scored while conceding 4, including one clean sheet. The goal profile points toward both teams finding scoring chances. Dinamo’s lack of clean sheets and Astrakhan’s ability to score away support the both teams to score angle, aligning with the 56.8% probability for BTTS Yes. There’s also a moderate lean toward a game with at least three total goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52.6%. With home win and away win probabilities close (45.4% vs 27.6%) and a sizable draw chance (27.0%), the match could be tight, which is why the BTTS call carries higher risk (confidence score 41).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:06 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Dinamo Stavropol predictions · Astrakhan predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.