Finished

High risk

Sassuolo vs Cesena result & prediction review

3–0Full time

Mon, Aug 17, 04:30 PMMapei Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Sassuolo (WL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1 for Cesena (L). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence

35/100

Strongest cover

82.1% probability

Risk classification

High

21.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

S win60.3%

Draw21.8%

C win17.9%

Goals

Over 1.576.1%

Over 2.551%

Under 2.549%

Both teams to score

Yes53%

No47%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sassuolo

3/6 recent form points

xG / match: 2.03
xGA / match: 1.81
Goals / match: 0.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Cesena

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/6 and Over 2.5 in 4/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sassuolo 3-0 Cesena

2026-08-17T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Cesena 0-2 Sassuolo

2025-04-25T20:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sassuolo 2-1 Cesena

2024-08-24T20:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sassuolo 1-2 Cesena

2017-01-18T17:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Cesena 2-3 Sassuolo

2015-05-10T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sassuolo 1-1 Cesena

2014-12-20T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Sassuolo vs Cesena. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 57.8% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1075 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Mon, 17 Aug 2026 16:09 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

All Coppa Italia predictions →

Team hubs: Sassuolo predictions · Cesena predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.