Pre-match

High risk

Value +25.6%

Sardarapat vs Syunik

Thu, Aug 27, 12:00 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 46/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Sardarapat (WL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.3 for Syunik (WWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 46/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped. The strongest fair-price edge is Draw or Away at 25.6 percentage points.

Confidence

46/100

Confidence

46/100

Strongest cover

76.4% probability

Risk classification

High

23.6% draw weight

Value status

Draw or Away

+25.6 pp vs market

Market sample

6 sources

48 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

S win50.8%

Draw23.6%

S win25.6%

Goals

Over 1.577.1%

Over 2.559.8%

Under 2.540.2%

Both teams to score

Yes61.3%

No38.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sardarapat

3/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Syunik

7/12 recent form points

WWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/3 and Over 2.5 in 2/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

Double Chance · Bet365

Draw or Away

Model edge

+25.6 pp

Model: 49.2%
Market fair: 23.6%
Price: 2.10

The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 2.03 versus 2.10 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 27, 12:38 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sardarapat 1-1 Syunik

2026-07-11T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Sardarapat 2-1 Syunik

2026-05-17T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Syunik 1-3 Sardarapat

2025-11-05T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +7.9%	4.00	25.0%	23.6%	-1.4%
	Betfair	3.90	25.6%	23.6%	-2.0%
	BetVictor	3.70	27.0%	23.6%	-3.4%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	23.6%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	3.56	28.1%	23.6%	-4.5%
	Pinnacle	3.48	28.7%	23.6%	-5.1%
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +9.9%	3.80	26.3%	25.6%	-0.7%
	Marathonbet	3.54	28.2%	25.6%	-2.6%
	BetVictor	3.50	28.6%	25.6%	-3.0%
	William Hill	3.40	29.4%	25.6%	-3.8%
	Bet365	3.30	30.3%	25.6%	-4.7%
	Pinnacle	3.21	31.2%	25.6%	-5.6%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +5.4%	1.90	52.6%	50.8%	-1.8%
	BetVictor	1.85	54.1%	50.8%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	50.8%	-4.1%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	50.8%	-4.8%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	50.8%	-6.3%
	Betfair	1.70	58.8%	50.8%	-8.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +4.0%	2.40	41.7%	40.2%	-1.5%
	Bet365	2.38	42.0%	40.2%	-1.8%
	BetVictor	2.27	44.1%	40.2%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	2.26	44.2%	40.2%	-4.0%
	Pinnacle	2.23	44.8%	40.2%	-4.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +1.6%	1.55	64.5%	59.8%	-4.7%
	BetVictor	1.54	64.9%	59.8%	-5.1%
	Bet365	1.53	65.4%	59.8%	-5.6%
	Marathonbet	1.51	66.2%	59.8%	-6.4%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	59.8%	-6.9%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +3.0%	2.45	40.8%	38.7%	-2.1%
	Betfair	2.40	41.7%	38.7%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.36	42.4%	38.7%	-3.7%
	William Hill	2.30	43.5%	38.7%	-4.8%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +0.8%	1.50	66.7%	61.3%	-5.4%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	61.3%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	1.48	67.6%	61.3%	-6.3%
	BetVictor	1.47	68.0%	61.3%	-6.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +7.3%	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.9%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.7%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%

Model reasoning

Sardarapat have scored 2 goals in 2 matches but also conceded 4, with no clean sheets so far. Their recent form is WL, suggesting they can produce goals but their defense has been vulnerable. Syunik’s record is stronger overall, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded across 4 matches, plus 2 clean sheets. Their recent form is WWDL, which points to some ability to control games, but the equal goals for and against indicates they are not consistently shutting opponents out. The matchup profile leans toward both teams finding goals, supported by the combined “both teams to score” probability of 61.3% and the “over 2.5 goals” probability of 59.8%. With Sardarapat having conceded in every match they’ve played and Syunik conceding as well, a BTTS outcome looks plausible, though not certain. The draw or away angle also reflects that uncertainty: the market-implied draw probability is 23.6%, while the AI probability is 49.2%, creating a large value gap. Overall, the prediction is BTTS Yes with high risk, since the teams’ defensive records are mixed and the result could swing either way.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:29 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Sardarapat predictions · Syunik predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.