Pre-match

High risk

Dinamo Barnaul vs Irtysh Omsk

Thu, Aug 27, 10:30 AM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 41/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Dinamo Barnaul (L) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.2 for Irtysh Omsk (L). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 41/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

41/100

Confidence

41/100

Strongest cover

72.9% probability

Risk classification

High

27.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

2 sources

20 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

DB win40%

Draw27.1%

IO win32.9%

Goals

Over 1.574.5%

Over 2.553.3%

Under 2.546.7%

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%

No41.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Dinamo Barnaul

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Irtysh Omsk

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/6 and Over 2.5 in 4/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 26, 08:35 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Dinamo Barnaul 2-1 Irtysh Omsk

2022-10-09T10:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Irtysh Omsk 2-1 Dinamo Barnaul

2022-10-02T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Irtysh Omsk 2-0 Dinamo Barnaul

2021-10-30T13:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dinamo Barnaul 1-1 Irtysh Omsk

2021-10-17T10:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Irtysh Omsk 1-2 Dinamo Barnaul

2021-07-28T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Irtysh Omsk 3-0 Dinamo Barnaul

2019-08-09T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price	3.30	30.3%	27.1%	-3.2%
	1xBet	3.30	30.3%	27.1%	-3.2%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.7%	2.76	36.2%	32.9%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.72	36.8%	32.9%	-3.9%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.4%	2.33	42.9%	40.0%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	2.31	43.3%	40.0%	-3.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.99	50.3%	46.7%	-3.6%
	1xBet	1.99	50.3%	46.7%	-3.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.73	57.8%	53.3%	-4.5%
	1xBet	1.73	57.8%	53.3%	-4.5%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.9%	2.23	44.8%	41.8%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.19	45.7%	41.8%	-3.9%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.57	63.7%	58.2%	-5.5%
	1xBet	1.57	63.7%	58.2%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
	1xBet	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.35	74.1%	0.0%	-74.1%
	1xBet	1.35	74.1%	0.0%	-74.1%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	1xBet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%

Model reasoning

Dinamo Barnaul have started their 2025 cup run with a 1-2 loss, scoring 1 and conceding 2 in their only match. Irtysh Omsk have also lost their only match, keeping a clean sheet on 0 goals scored and conceding 1. With both teams having conceded in their respective matches and Dinamo having scored at least once, the both teams to score signal is relatively stronger than the win markets. The provided probabilities put BTTS Yes at 58.2%, which aligns with Dinamo’s ability to find the net even in a defeat. The over 2.5 goals probability is 53.3%, suggesting a slight lean toward a match with multiple goals, but it’s not dominant. The win probabilities are fairly close as well, with Dinamo at 40.0%, a draw at 27.1%, and Irtysh at 32.9%, which supports a higher-variance cup-style outcome. Overall, the BTTS Yes pick fits the scoring/conceding pattern in the limited sample, but the low confidence score of 41 and the high risk level reflect that both teams have only played one match each, so the result could swing quickly.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:33 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Dinamo Barnaul predictions · Irtysh Omsk predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.