Pre-match

Medium risk

São Caetano U20 vs Aguai U20

Fri, Aug 14, 01:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 75/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

São Caetano U20 (DWLLL) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.2 for Aguai U20 (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 75/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

75/100

Confidence

75/100

Strongest cover

83.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SCU win61.2%

Draw22.7%

AU win16.1%

Goals

Over 1.581.1%

Over 2.553.5%

Under 2.546.5%

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%

No47.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

São Caetano U20

4/15 recent form points

DWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Aguai U20

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.91
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 14, 09:09 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Aguai U20 1-2 São Caetano U20

2025-07-18T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +13.2%	6.00	16.7%	16.1%	-0.6%
	10Bet	5.60	17.9%	16.1%	-1.8%
	Marathonbet	5.60	17.9%	16.1%	-1.8%
	William Hill	5.50	18.2%	16.1%	-2.1%
	Unibet	4.60	21.7%	16.1%	-5.6%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	16.1%	-6.1%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +5.7%	4.00	25.0%	22.7%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	3.86	25.9%	22.7%	-3.2%
	10Bet	3.85	26.0%	22.7%	-3.3%
	Bet365	3.75	26.7%	22.7%	-4.0%
	Unibet	3.65	27.4%	22.7%	-4.7%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	22.7%	-5.1%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +6.7%	1.61	62.1%	61.2%	-0.9%
	Bet365	1.57	63.7%	61.2%	-2.5%
	William Hill	1.50	66.7%	61.2%	-5.5%
	Marathonbet	1.48	67.6%	61.2%	-6.4%
	10Bet	1.45	69.0%	61.2%	-7.8%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	61.2%	-8.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.2%	2.05	48.8%	46.5%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	2.01	49.8%	46.5%	-3.3%
	Unibet	1.91	52.4%	46.5%	-5.9%
	10Bet	1.90	52.6%	46.5%	-6.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.3%	1.75	57.1%	53.5%	-3.6%
	10Bet	1.73	57.8%	53.5%	-4.3%
	Unibet	1.73	57.8%	53.5%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	1.70	58.8%	53.5%	-5.3%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +1.9%	1.95	51.3%	47.6%	-3.7%
	Unibet	1.93	51.8%	47.6%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.86	53.8%	47.6%	-6.2%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +1.1%	1.78	56.2%	52.4%	-3.8%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	52.4%	-4.7%
	Unibet	1.75	57.1%	52.4%	-4.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +12.8%	2.60	38.5%	0.0%	-38.5%
	10Bet	2.50	40.0%	0.0%	-40.0%
	William Hill	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
	Marathonbet	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	Unibet	1.98	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.9%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	10Bet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.0%	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Unibet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Betfair	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Marathonbet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	10Bet	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%

Model reasoning

São Caetano U20 at home has a tougher overall record (2W 1D 7L) than Aguai U20 away (2W 2D 7L), but the goal profile favors São Caetano: 10 scored versus 19 conceded, compared with Aguai’s 10 scored and 31 conceded. That defensive gap supports the idea that São Caetano can edge the match, even if their recent form is mixed to poor (DWLLL). The market-style probabilities align with a home-leaning outcome: home win 61.2% versus draw 22.7% and away win 16.1%. The draw still looks plausible given both sides have similar win totals and limited clean sheets (1 each), so the home advantage is not overwhelming. On goals, the match is slightly more likely to stay open than tight: over 2.5 goals is 53.5%, and both teams to score is 52.4%. With Aguai conceding heavily (31 in 11), São Caetano may create enough chances to score, but Aguai’s low scoring output (10 in 11) keeps the “both teams score” angle only marginal. Overall, the home win call fits the defensive disparity and the home win probability, with medium risk because São Caetano’s recent form (DWLLL) and both teams’ low clean-sheet counts suggest the result could swing if São Caetano fails to convert early chances.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

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Team hubs: São Caetano U20 predictions · Aguai U20 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.