Live

Medium risk

Itabirito U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20

0–045′

Fri, Aug 14, 01:00 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 72/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Itabirito U20 (DLWLD) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.7 for Atlético Mineiro U20 (WLDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence

72/100

Strongest cover

86.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

19.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

47 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

IU win13.4%

Draw19.5%

AMU win67.1%

Goals

Over 1.581.4%

Over 2.563%

Under 2.537%

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%

No44.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Itabirito U20

5/15 recent form points

DLWLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.36
Shots on target: Unavailable

Atlético Mineiro U20

10/15 recent form points

WLDWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 3.07
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 14, 12:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Itabirito U20 2-3 Atlético Mineiro U20

2026-03-27T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +15.3%	7.30	13.7%	13.4%	-0.3%
	William Hill	7.00	14.3%	13.4%	-0.9%
	Pinnacle	6.24	16.0%	13.4%	-2.6%
	10Bet	6.20	16.1%	13.4%	-2.7%
	Bet365	5.75	17.4%	13.4%	-4.0%
	BetVictor	5.50	18.2%	13.4%	-4.8%
Draw 1X2	PinnacleBest price +6.7%	4.65	21.5%	19.5%	-2.0%
	10Bet	4.60	21.7%	19.5%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	4.60	21.7%	19.5%	-2.2%
	William Hill	4.20	23.8%	19.5%	-4.3%
	Bet365	4.10	24.4%	19.5%	-4.9%
	BetVictor	4.00	25.0%	19.5%	-5.5%
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +5.1%	1.42	70.4%	67.1%	-3.3%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	67.1%	-6.4%
	Pinnacle	1.36	73.5%	67.1%	-6.4%
	10Bet	1.35	74.1%	67.1%	-7.0%
	Marathonbet	1.32	75.8%	67.1%	-8.7%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	67.1%	-9.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +5.3%	2.57	38.9%	37.0%	-1.9%
	Bet365	2.50	40.0%	37.0%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.49	40.2%	37.0%	-3.2%
	BetVictor	2.20	45.5%	37.0%	-8.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.6%	1.50	66.7%	63.0%	-3.7%
	Pinnacle	1.43	69.9%	63.0%	-6.9%
	Marathonbet	1.42	70.4%	63.0%	-7.4%
	BetVictor	1.33	75.2%	63.0%	-12.2%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +3.2%	2.05	48.8%	44.4%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	2.04	49.0%	44.4%	-4.6%
	BetVictor	1.87	53.5%	44.4%	-9.1%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +4.2%	1.67	59.9%	55.6%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	1.64	61.0%	55.6%	-5.4%
	BetVictor	1.50	66.7%	55.6%	-11.1%
Home or Draw Double Chance	10BetBest price +7.8%	2.95	33.9%	0.0%	-33.9%
	William Hill	2.90	34.5%	0.0%	-34.5%
	Marathonbet	2.83	35.3%	0.0%	-35.3%
	BetVictor	2.70	37.0%	0.0%	-37.0%
	Bet365	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.2%	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	10Bet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	BetVictor	1.05	95.2%	0.0%	-95.2%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +3.9%	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	BetVictor	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	William Hill	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	10Bet	1.05	95.2%	0.0%	-95.2%
	Marathonbet	1.03	97.1%	0.0%	-97.1%

Model reasoning

Atlético Mineiro U20 look stronger for an away win, with a much better overall record of 10W 1D 3L compared with Itabirito U20’s 6W 3D 5L. The away side also has a clear edge in goal profile, scoring 43 and conceding 14, while Itabirito U20 have 19 scored and 21 conceded. The clean sheet numbers support that gap as well. Atlético Mineiro U20 have 8 clean sheets from 14 matches, versus 4 for Itabirito U20, suggesting the away team is more consistent at limiting opponents. Recent form is also slightly more favorable for Atlético Mineiro U20, with WLDWW compared to Itabirito U20’s DLWLD. The goal-related probabilities lean toward a comfortable Atlético Mineiro U20 performance rather than a tight low-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 63.0%, and both teams to score at 55.6%, which aligns with Atlético Mineiro U20’s stronger attacking output (43 goals) while still allowing for some scoring from Itabirito U20. With away win at 67.1% and confidenceScore 72, the call is reasonably supported, but the medium risk reflects that Itabirito U20 are not completely one-dimensional at home (they have 4 clean sheets and have managed 19 goals across the season).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:31 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

All Mineiro U20 predictions →

Team hubs: Itabirito U20 predictions · Atlético Mineiro U20 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.