Live

High risk

Prykarpattia vs Probiy Horodenka

1–039′

Fri, Aug 14, 01:00 PMMCS Rukh

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 56/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Prykarpattia (LLDDW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for Probiy Horodenka (LWDWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 56/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

56/100

Confidence

56/100

Strongest cover

76.1% probability

Risk classification

High

27.8% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

49 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

P win48.3%

Draw27.8%

PH win23.9%

Goals

Over 1.567.6%

Over 2.546.7%

Under 2.553.3%

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%

No48.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Prykarpattia

5/15 recent form points

LLDDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.03
Shots on target: Unavailable

Probiy Horodenka

7/15 recent form points

LWDWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.97
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 14, 12:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Probiy Horodenka 0-3 Prykarpattia

2026-06-01T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Prykarpattia 1-0 Probiy Horodenka

2025-11-09T12:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +3.3%	3.79	26.4%	23.9%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	3.78	26.5%	23.9%	-2.6%
	William Hill	3.75	26.7%	23.9%	-2.8%
	10Bet	3.60	27.8%	23.9%	-3.9%
	Bet365	3.60	27.8%	23.9%	-3.9%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	23.9%	-4.7%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +3.7%	3.30	30.3%	27.8%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	3.25	30.8%	27.8%	-3.0%
	Pinnacle	3.24	30.9%	27.8%	-3.1%
	10Bet	3.20	31.3%	27.8%	-3.4%
	Bet365	3.10	32.3%	27.8%	-4.5%
	William Hill	3.00	33.3%	27.8%	-5.5%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.9%	1.95	51.3%	48.3%	-3.0%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	48.3%	-4.1%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	48.3%	-4.1%
	10Bet	1.90	52.6%	48.3%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	48.3%	-5.8%
	Pinnacle	1.85	54.1%	48.3%	-5.8%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +6.9%	2.10	47.6%	46.7%	-0.9%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	46.7%	-4.6%
	Pinnacle	1.94	51.5%	46.7%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.92	52.1%	46.7%	-5.4%
	10Bet	1.91	52.4%	46.7%	-5.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +3.7%	1.81	55.2%	53.3%	-1.9%
	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	53.3%	-3.2%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	53.3%	-3.8%
	10Bet	1.70	58.8%	53.3%	-5.5%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	53.3%	-5.5%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +1.6%	1.95	51.3%	48.1%	-3.2%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	48.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	1.86	53.8%	48.1%	-5.7%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +1.1%	1.78	56.2%	51.9%	-4.3%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	51.9%	-5.2%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	51.9%	-5.2%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +3.1%	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	0.0%	-57.1%
	Marathonbet	1.75	57.1%	0.0%	-57.1%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.7%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +5.9%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	William Hill	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Prykarpattia at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Probiy Horodenka’s away record, but both sides are fairly close in goal output. Prykarpattia has scored 30 and conceded 33 in 29 matches, while Probiy Horodenka has scored 29 and conceded 37 in 30 matches, suggesting a game that could be competitive rather than one-sided. Recent form is mixed for both teams. Prykarpattia’s last five results are LLDDW, showing some inconsistency but with a win appearing recently. Probiy Horodenka’s last five are LWDWL, which includes two wins but also multiple losses, so neither side looks fully stable going into this matchup. The market-style probabilities point to a home win lean, with home win at 48.3% versus draw at 27.8% and away win at 23.9%. That said, the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high, since the draw probability is still meaningful and the away side’s goal concession rate isn’t dramatically worse. For goals, over 2.5 is at 46.7%, which is slightly below a coin-flip, while both teams to score is higher at 51.9%. That combination fits a scenario where Prykarpattia may edge the result, but the match could still produce a close scoreline with both teams contributing.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Prykarpattia predictions · Probiy Horodenka predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.