Finished

High risk

San Antonio vs Miami FC

2–1Full time

Thu, Aug 13, 12:30 AMToyota Field

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 43/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

San Antonio (WWWDL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.1 for Miami FC (DWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 43/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

43/100

Confidence

43/100

Strongest cover

80.2% probability

Risk classification

High

23.1% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SA win57.1%

Draw23.1%

MF win19.8%

Goals

Over 1.577.9%

Over 2.553.6%

Under 2.546.4%

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%

No44.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

San Antonio

10/15 recent form points

WWWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.20
Shots on target: Unavailable

Miami FC

4/12 recent form points

DWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.75
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/5 and Over 2.5 in 2/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

San Antonio 0-0 Miami FC

2026-04-12T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

San Antonio 1-2 Miami FC

2025-04-13T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Miami FC 2-1 San Antonio

2024-04-28T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

San Antonio 0-1 Miami FC

2023-07-23T03:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Miami FC 0-2 San Antonio

2022-05-15T01:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

San Antonio at home has a stronger overall record in its 2025 sample, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, plus 3 clean sheets in 5 matches. It has scored 6 and conceded 4, suggesting more control than Miami FC in this dataset. Miami FC’s away results are less consistent, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, and it has 0 clean sheets. It has scored 7 but also conceded 9, which points to a more open profile away from home. The goal-related probabilities lean toward a relatively eventful match: over 2.5 goals is slightly more likely than not (53.6%), and both teams to score is also favored (55.2%). That aligns with Miami FC’s tendency to concede, while San Antonio’s clean-sheet rate suggests it may still keep Miami from scoring in some scenarios. With San Antonio’s home edge and the overall win probability at 57.1%, a home win is the lean, but the confidence is modest (43) and the risk is high given Miami FC’s higher scoring output (7 goals) and the draw probability (23.1%).

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 57.1% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1116 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:04 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: San Antonio predictions · Miami FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.