Finished

Medium risk

Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica result & prediction review

2–1Full time

Wed, Sep 9, 09:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 70/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Recoleta (DWDWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for San Marcos de Arica (LLLWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence

70/100

Strongest cover

76.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

25.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

R win50.8%

Draw25.8%

SMD win23.4%

Goals

Over 1.573.8%

Over 2.548%

Under 2.552%

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%

No47.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Recoleta

11/15 recent form points

DWDWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

San Marcos de Arica

3/15 recent form points

LLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.17
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/8 and Over 2.5 in 5/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recoleta 2-1 San Marcos de Arica

2026-09-09T23:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

San Marcos de Arica 1-0 Recoleta

2026-05-05T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Recoleta 0-0 San Marcos de Arica

2025-09-08T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

San Marcos de Arica 2-1 Recoleta

2025-05-04T02:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

San Marcos de Arica 2-1 Recoleta

2024-08-18T23:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Recoleta 1-2 San Marcos de Arica

2024-04-07T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

San Marcos de Arica 3-2 Recoleta

2023-07-29T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Recoleta 1-1 San Marcos de Arica

2023-03-10T22:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 46.6%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

More predictions

All Primera B predictions →

Team hubs: Recoleta predictions · San Marcos de Arica predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.