Finished

High risk

Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander result & prediction review

3–2Full time

Sat, Sep 5, 04:30 PMEstadio Municipal de Butarque

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 40/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Rayo Vallecano (WDDWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.3 for Racing Santander (DLWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 40/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

40/100

Confidence

40/100

Strongest cover

75.8% probability

Risk classification

High

24.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

RV win49.9%

Draw24.2%

RS win25.9%

Goals

Over 1.577.6%

Over 2.553%

Under 2.547%

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%

No43.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Rayo Vallecano

11/15 recent form points

WDDWW

xG / match: 1.18
xGA / match: 1.96
Goals / match: 1.08
Shots on target: Unavailable

Racing Santander

4/12 recent form points

DLWL

xG / match: 1.58
xGA / match: 1.00
Goals / match: 1.75
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

RV derived xG

1.09

RS derived xG

1.77

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 2.86. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/5 and Over 2.5 in 3/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing Santander

2026-09-05T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Racing Santander 1-2 Rayo Vallecano

2020-07-20T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Racing Santander

2019-09-13T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 4-2 Racing Santander

2012-03-03T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Racing Santander 1-1 Rayo Vallecano

2011-10-01T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-2

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 49.8% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1616 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 04 Sep 2026 23:45 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Rayo Vallecano predictions · Racing Santander predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.