Pre-match

High risk

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction

Tue, Sep 15, 05:00 PMCampo de Futbol de Vallecas

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 51/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Rayo Vallecano (WDDWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.3 for Espanyol (LLWWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 51/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

51/100

Confidence

51/100

Strongest cover

74.4% probability

Risk classification

High

25.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

RV win46.4%

Draw25.6%

E win28%

Goals

Over 1.577.7%

Over 2.553.1%

Under 2.546.9%

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%

No42.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Rayo Vallecano

11/15 recent form points

WDDWW

xG / match: 1.18
xGA / match: 1.96
Goals / match: 1.08
Shots on target: Unavailable

Espanyol

7/15 recent form points

LLWWD

xG / match: 1.44
xGA / match: 1.51
Goals / match: 1.13
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

RV derived xG

1.35

E derived xG

1.70

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.05. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol

2026-04-23T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Espanyol 1-0 Rayo Vallecano

2025-12-07T18:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 0-4 Espanyol

2025-04-04T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Espanyol 2-1 Rayo Vallecano

2024-08-31T19:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Espanyol

2023-05-21T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Espanyol 0-2 Rayo Vallecano

2022-08-19T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Espanyol 0-1 Rayo Vallecano

2022-04-21T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol

2021-12-05T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Espanyol 0-2 Rayo Vallecano

2021-07-24T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Espanyol 2-3 Rayo Vallecano

2021-01-31T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Rayo Vallecano predictions · Espanyol predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.