Pre-match

High risk

Racing Santander vs Alaves prediction

Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PMEstadio El Sardinero

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 48/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Racing Santander (DLWL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.2 for Alaves (LDWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 48/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

48/100

Confidence

48/100

Strongest cover

73.8% probability

Risk classification

High

26.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

RS win45.3%

Draw26.2%

A win28.5%

Goals

Over 1.576.7%

Over 2.551.8%

Under 2.548.2%

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%

No43.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Racing Santander

4/12 recent form points

DLWL

xG / match: 1.58
xGA / match: 1.00
Goals / match: 1.75
Shots on target: Unavailable

Alaves

7/15 recent form points

LDWWL

xG / match: 1.76
xGA / match: 0.98
Goals / match: 1.16
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

RS derived xG

1.28

A derived xG

1.38

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 2.66. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/5 and Over 2.5 in 2/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves

2026-08-07T19:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Racing Santander 0-0 Alaves

2024-07-17T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Racing Santander 1-2 Alaves

2023-07-22T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Alaves 3-0 Racing Santander

2023-01-21T21:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves

2022-11-01T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Racing Santander vs Alaves. Data angle: team strength uses the 2026 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

More predictions

All La Liga predictions →

Team hubs: Racing Santander predictions · Alaves predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.