NB I
Finished
High risk

Puskas Academy vs Paks

32Full time
Sun, Aug 16, 03:30 PMPancho Arena

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 46/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Puskas Academy (LLWWD) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.4 for Paks (LWLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 46/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

46/100

Confidence
46/100

Strongest cover

12

73.7% probability

Risk classification

High

26.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

PA win38.8%
Draw26.3%
P win34.9%

Goals

Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

Both teams to score

Yes59%
No41%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Puskas Academy

7/15 recent form points

LLWWD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.30
Shots on target
Unavailable

Paks

9/15 recent form points

LWLWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.91
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 8/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Puskas Academy 3-2 Paks

2026-08-16T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Paks 1-0 Puskas Academy

2026-04-19T14:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Puskas Academy 1-2 Paks

2026-01-24T19:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Paks 3-2 Puskas Academy

2025-09-27T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Paks 2-2 Puskas Academy

2025-04-19T20:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Puskas Academy 3-1 Paks

2024-12-14T19:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Paks 2-1 Puskas Academy

2024-09-01T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Puskas Academy 5-0 Paks

2024-04-20T14:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Paks 2-1 Puskas Academy

2024-02-04T17:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Puskas Academy 0-2 Paks

2023-09-23T14:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Puskas Academy and Paks both have fairly balanced scoring and conceding records, which supports the idea that goals are likely at both ends. Puskas have scored 43 and conceded 43 in 33 matches, while Paks have scored 63 and conceded 46 in 33 matches, suggesting neither side is consistently shutting the other out. The season clean-sheet counts are also close enough to keep the “both teams score” angle plausible. Puskas have 7 clean sheets and Paks have 6, so shutouts are not dominating results for either team, and their recent form includes multiple matches where they’ve been able to find results. Goal volume indicators point in the same direction. With 55.1% for over 2.5 goals and 59.0% for both teams to score, the matchup profile leans toward a game with at least one scoring response from each side, even if it’s not strongly one-sided. The confidence is moderate and the risk is high (46 confidence, high risk), so while BTTS Yes is the lean, the margins are not large and a lower-scoring or one-sided outcome remains possible.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-2

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 59.0% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.2491 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:03 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Puskas Academy predictions · Paks predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.