Pre-match

High risk

Lech Poznań II vs Lipno Stęszew

Wed, Aug 19, 10:00 AMAmica Wronki Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 52/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Lech Poznań II (DLLLL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.3 for Lipno Stęszew (LWLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 52/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

52/100

Confidence

52/100

Strongest cover

79.0% probability

Risk classification

High

22.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LPI win56.3%

Draw22.7%

LS win21%

Goals

Over 1.583.3%

Over 2.561.2%

Under 2.538.8%

Both teams to score

Yes60.3%

No39.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Lech Poznań II

1/15 recent form points

DLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.97
Shots on target: Unavailable

Lipno Stęszew

9/15 recent form points

LWLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.38
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 18, 04:15 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Lipno Stęszew 1-0 Lech Poznań II

2025-11-29T18:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lech Poznań II 2-3 Lipno Stęszew

2025-08-09T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +4.5%	4.36	22.9%	21.0%	-1.9%
	Betfair	4.33	23.1%	21.0%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	4.30	23.3%	21.0%	-2.3%
	Bet365	4.10	24.4%	21.0%	-3.4%
	Unibet	4.00	25.0%	21.0%	-4.0%
	Betano	3.95	25.3%	21.0%	-4.3%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +4.5%	4.00	25.0%	22.7%	-2.3%
	Betfair	3.90	25.6%	22.7%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	3.88	25.8%	22.7%	-3.1%
	1xBet	3.88	25.8%	22.7%	-3.1%
	Betano	3.70	27.0%	22.7%	-4.3%
	Unibet	3.60	27.8%	22.7%	-5.1%
Home 1X2	BetanoBest price +3.8%	1.70	58.8%	56.3%	-2.5%
	Unibet	1.67	59.9%	56.3%	-3.6%
	1xBet	1.63	61.3%	56.3%	-5.0%
	Betfair	1.62	61.7%	56.3%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	1.61	62.1%	56.3%	-5.8%
	Bet365	1.60	62.5%	56.3%	-6.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +6.3%	2.50	40.0%	38.8%	-1.2%
	Marathonbet	2.33	42.9%	38.8%	-4.1%
	1xBet	2.33	42.9%	38.8%	-4.1%
	Unibet	2.25	44.4%	38.8%	-5.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +0.7%	1.50	66.7%	61.2%	-5.5%
	Unibet	1.50	66.7%	61.2%	-5.5%
	Marathonbet	1.48	67.6%	61.2%	-6.4%
	1xBet	1.48	67.6%	61.2%	-6.4%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +2.1%	2.32	43.1%	39.7%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	2.27	44.1%	39.7%	-4.4%
	Unibet	2.23	44.8%	39.7%	-5.1%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +0.9%	1.52	65.8%	60.3%	-5.5%
	1xBet	1.52	65.8%	60.3%	-5.5%
	Unibet	1.48	67.6%	60.3%	-7.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +6.2%	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	Marathonbet	2.04	49.0%	0.0%	-49.0%
	1xBet	2.04	49.0%	0.0%	-49.0%
	Betano	1.93	51.8%	0.0%	-51.8%
	Unibet	1.89	52.9%	0.0%	-52.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetanoBest price +3.7%	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	1xBet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetanoBest price +4.0%	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	1xBet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

Lech Poznań II at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Lipno Stęszew, with 14 wins from 34 matches versus Lipno’s 15 wins but with a lower away scoring output. Their goal difference is also better, as Lech Poznań II have scored 67 and conceded 54, while Lipno Stęszew have scored 47 and conceded 54. The recent form is mixed and adds uncertainty. Lech Poznań II’s latest run is DLLLL, which suggests they’ve struggled recently, while Lipno Stęszew’s form is LWLWW, indicating more consistency in their last matches. Even so, the matchup leans toward Lech Poznań II edging it, reflected in the home win probability of 56.3% versus 21.0% for an away win. The higher likelihood of goals also supports a home-leaning outcome, with over 2.5 goals at 61.2% and both teams to score at 60.3%, suggesting the game may not be a low-scoring, controlled home win. With a confidence score of 52 and a high risk level, the prediction is best viewed as a modest lean rather than a clear result, especially given Lech Poznań II’s poor recent form.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:09 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Lech Poznań II predictions · Lipno Stęszew predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.