Pre-match

High risk

Parma vs Genoa prediction

Sun, Sep 20, 01:00 PMStadio Ennio Tardini

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 52/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Parma (WLLLW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for Genoa (LDDLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 52/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

52/100

Confidence

52/100

Strongest cover

72.8% probability

Risk classification

High

28.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

P win44%

Draw28.8%

G win27.2%

Goals

Over 1.567.9%

Over 2.540.6%

Under 2.559.4%

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%

No52.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Parma

6/15 recent form points

WLLLW

xG / match: 0.62
xGA / match: 1.73
Goals / match: 0.74
Shots on target: Unavailable

Genoa

2/15 recent form points

LDDLL

xG / match: 0.72
xGA / match: 1.76
Goals / match: 1.08
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

P derived xG

1.19

G derived xG

1.22

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 2.41. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Parma 0-0 Genoa

2026-01-18T12:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Genoa 0-0 Parma

2025-10-19T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Genoa 1-0 Parma

2025-01-12T12:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Parma 0-1 Genoa

2024-11-04T18:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Parma 2-0 Genoa

2023-02-05T16:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Genoa 3-3 Parma

2022-09-03T16:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Parma 1-2 Genoa

2021-03-19T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Genoa 1-2 Parma

2020-11-30T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Genoa 1-4 Parma

2020-06-23T21:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Parma 5-1 Genoa

2019-10-20T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Parma vs Genoa. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Parma predictions · Genoa predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.