Osasuna vs Getafe

Osasuna’s overall home profile looks slightly stronger than Getafe’s away profile, with Osasuna recording 11 wins at home across the season versus Getafe’s 15 wins overall but fewer goals scored. Osasuna also has a better defensive record in terms of clean sheets (7 for Osasuna versus 12 for Getafe), though their recent form is very poor with five straight losses, which tempers the home-win case. From a chance-creation and shot-quality angle, Osasuna’s expected goals for are higher (52.99) than Getafe’s (23.60), while Getafe’s expected goals against are much higher (65.62), suggesting Osasuna should have more attacking opportunities. However, Osasuna’s expected goals against is also relatively low (26.16), which points to a more controlled game for them, but it doesn’t fully offset the risk created by their current losing streak. The market probabilities align with a tight match: home win is only modestly favored at 51.9%, with draws still substantial at 27.2%. Both teams to score is close to coin-flip territory at 44.1%, and over 2.5 goals is at 41.3%, so the data leans toward a lower-to-moderate scoring outcome rather than a clear goal-fest. Overall, the home win lean is reasonable but not strong, reflected in the high risk level and the near-competitive draw probability. If the game stays tight, the draw becomes a meaningful alternative given Osasuna’s recent form volatility.