Pre-match

Medium risk

Ural U20 vs Zenit U19

Fri, Aug 28, 08:00 AM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 76/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Ural U20 (LWLLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 2 for Zenit U19 (WDLWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Strongest cover

89.8% probability

Risk classification

Medium

15.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

4 sources

31 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

UU win10.2%

Draw15.6%

ZU win74.2%

Goals

Over 1.584.9%

Over 2.570.8%

Under 2.529.2%

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%

No41.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Ural U20

3/15 recent form points

LWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.10
Shots on target: Unavailable

Zenit U19

7/15 recent form points

WDLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.60
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/8 and Over 2.5 in 7/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 28, 04:28 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Zenit U19 1-1 Ural U20

2026-04-17T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Ural U20 1-6 Zenit U19

2025-08-15T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit U19 3-2 Ural U20

2025-04-04T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit U19 5-0 Ural U20

2024-08-02T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Ural U20 0-3 Zenit U19

2024-05-10T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Ural U20 2-3 Zenit U19

2023-08-25T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ural U20 1-3 Zenit U19

2022-09-09T09:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit U19 3-2 Ural U20

2022-07-15T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +12.5%	9.35	10.7%	10.2%	-0.5%
	Marathonbet	9.00	11.1%	10.2%	-0.9%
	Dafabet	7.80	12.8%	10.2%	-2.6%
	Superbet	7.10	14.1%	10.2%	-3.9%
Draw 1X2	DafabetBest price +6.4%	5.80	17.2%	15.6%	-1.6%
	Superbet	5.60	17.9%	15.6%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	5.20	19.2%	15.6%	-3.6%
	1xBet	5.20	19.2%	15.6%	-3.6%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.2%	1.25	80.0%	74.2%	-5.8%
	Superbet	1.25	80.0%	74.2%	-5.8%
	Dafabet	1.25	80.0%	74.2%	-5.8%
	Marathonbet	1.24	80.6%	74.2%	-6.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +0.4%	3.14	31.8%	29.2%	-2.6%
	1xBet	3.14	31.8%	29.2%	-2.6%
	Superbet	3.10	32.3%	29.2%	-3.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.27	78.7%	70.8%	-7.9%
	1xBet	1.27	78.7%	70.8%	-7.9%
	Superbet	1.27	78.7%	70.8%	-7.9%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.0%	2.25	44.4%	41.1%	-3.3%
	Superbet	2.22	45.0%	41.1%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	2.21	45.2%	41.1%	-4.1%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +1.3%	1.59	62.9%	58.9%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.56	64.1%	58.9%	-5.2%
	1xBet	1.56	64.1%	58.9%	-5.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +1.5%	3.30	30.3%	0.0%	-30.3%
	1xBet	3.30	30.3%	0.0%	-30.3%
	Superbet	3.15	31.7%	0.0%	-31.7%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +0.3%	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	1xBet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	Superbet	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Superbet	1.03	97.1%	0.0%	-97.1%

Model reasoning

Zenit U19 look more likely to win away, with a strong season record of 12W 3D 5L compared to Ural U20’s 5W 4D 11L. The goal profile also favors Zenit, scoring 52 and conceding 26, while Ural have scored 22 and conceded 41, suggesting Zenit’s attack and overall defensive balance are better. The recent form adds some caution. Ural’s latest run is LWLLL, which aligns with their negative record and higher concession rate, while Zenit’s recent form WDLWL is mixed but still includes more wins than Ural. This combination supports the away win lean, though it’s not a lock given Zenit’s not-perfect recent results. For goals, the matchup projects well toward over 2.5 goals, with Zenit’s higher scoring output (52) and Ural’s higher concession total (41). Both teams to score is also moderately likely at 58.9%, since Ural have been conceding regularly and Zenit still allow some goals (26 conceded), even if they keep more clean sheets than Ural. Overall, the away win probability is high at 74.2% with medium risk, reflecting Zenit’s season edge but tempered by Ural’s poor recent form not guaranteeing a clean, dominant run.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:06 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Ural U20 predictions · Zenit U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.