Pre-match

High risk

Aryan vs United

Fri, Aug 28, 09:30 AM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 61/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Aryan (DDDWW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for United (WWWDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 61/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

61/100

Confidence

61/100

Strongest cover

70.5% probability

Risk classification

High

29.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

56 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win34.9%

Draw29.5%

U win35.6%

Goals

Over 1.568%

Over 2.541.3%

Under 2.558.7%

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%

No51.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Aryan

9/15 recent form points

DDDWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.44
Shots on target: Unavailable

United

13/15 recent form points

WWWDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.25
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

United 2-1 Aryan

2025-06-28T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Aryan 1-2 United

2024-07-01T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.3%	3.10	32.3%	29.5%	-2.8%
	Superbet	3.05	32.8%	29.5%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	3.02	33.1%	29.5%	-3.6%
	1xBet	3.02	33.1%	29.5%	-3.6%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	29.5%	-3.8%
	Betano	3.00	33.3%	29.5%	-3.8%
Home 1X2	BetanoBest price +1.1%	2.65	37.7%	34.9%	-2.8%
	Superbet	2.65	37.7%	34.9%	-2.8%
	Betfair	2.63	38.0%	34.9%	-3.1%
	Bet365	2.60	38.5%	34.9%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	2.60	38.5%	34.9%	-3.6%
	1xBet	2.60	38.5%	34.9%	-3.6%
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +1.4%	2.55	39.2%	35.6%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	2.52	39.7%	35.6%	-4.1%
	1xBet	2.52	39.7%	35.6%	-4.1%
	Bet365	2.50	40.0%	35.6%	-4.4%
	Betano	2.50	40.0%	35.6%	-4.4%
	Superbet	2.50	40.0%	35.6%	-4.4%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.5%	2.35	42.6%	41.3%	-1.3%
	Superbet	2.22	45.0%	41.3%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	2.21	45.2%	41.3%	-3.9%
	1xBet	2.21	45.2%	41.3%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	41.3%	-4.2%
	Betano	2.18	45.9%	41.3%	-4.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +1.8%	1.60	62.5%	58.7%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.58	63.3%	58.7%	-4.6%
	1xBet	1.58	63.3%	58.7%	-4.6%
	Bet365	1.57	63.7%	58.7%	-5.0%
	Superbet	1.57	63.7%	58.7%	-5.0%
	Betano	1.53	65.4%	58.7%	-6.7%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +3.7%	1.95	51.3%	48.8%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	1.86	53.8%	48.8%	-5.0%
	1xBet	1.86	53.8%	48.8%	-5.0%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	48.8%	-5.3%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.6%	1.85	54.1%	51.2%	-2.9%
	1xBet	1.81	55.2%	51.2%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	51.2%	-5.0%
	Superbet	1.77	56.5%	51.2%	-5.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +1.5%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betano	1.42	70.4%	0.0%	-70.4%
	Superbet	1.41	70.9%	0.0%	-70.9%
	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	1xBet	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +1.0%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Betfair	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Betano	1.39	71.9%	0.0%	-71.9%
	Marathonbet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	1xBet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	Superbet	1.37	73.0%	0.0%	-73.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.7%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betano	1.32	75.8%	0.0%	-75.8%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	1xBet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Superbet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%

Model reasoning

Aryan at home have been very stingy defensively, conceding only 5 goals in 9 matches and keeping six clean sheets. United’s away record is solid, but their scoring output is modest with 10 goals in 8 matches, and they concede 6 overall. The recent form points to low volatility rather than open play. Aryan’s newest-first run is DDDWW, while United’s is WWWDW, both suggesting results that can come from controlled games and fewer chances. With over 2.5 goals at 41.3% and both teams to score at 48.8%, the data leans toward a match that may not produce many goals. That aligns with the Under 2.5 Goals prediction, though the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high given how close the scoring probabilities are. Overall, the strongest signal is Aryan’s defensive record at home, which supports the under angle more than it supports a clear winner.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 28 Aug 2026 01:21 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.