Pre-match

Medium risk

Prospect United vs Hurstville FC

Fri, Aug 28, 10:00 AM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 75/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Prospect United (DLDWL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.4 for Hurstville FC (WLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 75/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

75/100

Confidence

75/100

Strongest cover

77.5% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

48 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

PU win47.8%

Draw22.5%

HF win29.7%

Goals

Over 1.579.8%

Over 2.563.8%

Under 2.536.2%

Both teams to score

Yes63.1%

No36.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Prospect United

5/15 recent form points

DLDWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.03
Shots on target: Unavailable

Hurstville FC

3/15 recent form points

WLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.45
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 28, 02:55 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Hurstville FC 2-1 Prospect United

2026-05-15T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +9.6%	4.20	23.8%	22.5%	-1.3%
	Betfair	4.00	25.0%	22.5%	-2.5%
	Bet365	3.90	25.6%	22.5%	-3.1%
	William Hill	3.80	26.3%	22.5%	-3.8%
	Unibet	3.80	26.3%	22.5%	-3.8%
	BetVictor	3.30	30.3%	22.5%	-7.8%
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +9.3%	3.24	30.9%	29.7%	-1.2%
	Bet365	3.10	32.3%	29.7%	-2.6%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	29.7%	-3.6%
	Unibet	2.95	33.9%	29.7%	-4.2%
	William Hill	2.80	35.7%	29.7%	-6.0%
	BetVictor	2.70	37.0%	29.7%	-7.3%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +5.7%	2.00	50.0%	47.8%	-2.2%
	Unibet	1.94	51.5%	47.8%	-3.7%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	47.8%	-4.6%
	BetVictor	1.90	52.6%	47.8%	-4.8%
	Bet365	1.83	54.6%	47.8%	-6.8%
	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	47.8%	-8.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +9.1%	2.80	35.7%	36.2%	+0.5%
	Marathonbet	2.52	39.7%	36.2%	-3.5%
	Bet365	2.38	42.0%	36.2%	-5.8%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +7.2%	1.53	65.4%	63.8%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	1.41	70.9%	63.8%	-7.1%
	Unibet	1.34	74.6%	63.8%	-10.8%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +5.0%	2.53	39.5%	36.9%	-2.6%
	William Hill	2.45	40.8%	36.9%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	2.25	44.4%	36.9%	-7.5%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +3.1%	1.44	69.4%	63.1%	-6.3%
	Marathonbet	1.42	70.4%	63.1%	-7.3%
	BetVictor	1.33	75.2%	63.1%	-12.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +8.0%	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Bet365	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Unibet	1.65	60.6%	0.0%	-60.6%
	BetVictor	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +7.7%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Bet365	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Unibet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	BetVictor	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.1%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Unibet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	BetVictor	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%

Model reasoning

Prospect United have scored 30 goals in 29 matches and conceded 52, which points to a fairly open profile at both ends. Their recent form includes two wins in the last five results (DLDWL), but they also have a higher concession rate overall, suggesting they can struggle to keep games controlled. Hurstville FC have a stronger scoring output with 42 goals in 29 matches, while also conceding 52. Their recent run is poor (WLLLL), but the season-long numbers still indicate they can create chances and contribute to goals even if results have been inconsistent lately. With both teams combining for 82 goals scored across the season and 104 goals conceded, the matchup leans toward at least three total goals. The probabilities align with that view, with over 2.5 goals at 63.8% and both teams to score at 63.1%, though the medium risk reflects Hurstville’s recent scoring/results dip. A home win is slightly more likely than an away win (47.8% vs 29.7%), but the draw is also meaningful (22.5%), which can sometimes cap total goals. Overall, the goal expectation is the main driver behind the over 2.5 goals lean rather than a clear dominance by either side.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 28 Aug 2026 02:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Prospect United predictions · Hurstville FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.