Super League
Pre-match
Low risk

Navbahor vs Nasaf

Fri, Aug 21, 02:00 PMMarkaziy Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 77/100

Model verdict
Low risk

Home Win

Navbahor (DDWWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1 for Nasaf (DWWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence
77/100

Strongest cover

1X

80.4% probability

Risk classification

Low

25.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win54.8%
Draw25.6%
N win19.6%

Goals

Over 1.571.8%
Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Navbahor

11/15 recent form points

DDWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.65
Shots on target
Unavailable

Nasaf

8/15 recent form points

DWWDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.18
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/10 and Over 2.5 in 2/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 21, 12:34 PM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Nasaf 0-0 Navbahor

2026-05-04T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Navbahor 0-0 Nasaf

2025-10-30T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nasaf 1-0 Navbahor

2025-06-15T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Navbahor 0-1 Nasaf

2024-09-14T16:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nasaf 3-2 Navbahor

2024-06-30T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nasaf 0-1 Navbahor

2024-04-14T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Navbahor 0-1 Nasaf

2023-10-30T14:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nasaf 0-0 Navbahor

2023-05-07T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Navbahor 1-2 Nasaf

2022-10-30T13:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nasaf 0-1 Navbahor

2022-08-02T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Away
1X2
10BetBest price +7.8%4.7521.1%19.6%-1.5%
Marathonbet4.5022.2%19.6%-2.6%
BetVictor4.5022.2%19.6%-2.6%
William Hill4.4022.7%19.6%-3.1%
Betfair4.4022.7%19.6%-3.1%
Bet3653.9025.6%19.6%-6.0%
Draw
1X2
Bet365Best price +5.2%3.6027.8%25.6%-2.2%
Betfair3.5028.6%25.6%-3.0%
BetVictor3.5028.6%25.6%-3.0%
Marathonbet3.3829.6%25.6%-4.0%
10Bet3.3529.9%25.6%-4.3%
William Hill3.2031.3%25.6%-5.6%
Home
1X2
William HillBest price +0.8%1.7058.8%54.8%-4.0%
Bet3651.7058.8%54.8%-4.0%
Betfair1.7058.8%54.8%-4.0%
BetVictor1.7058.8%54.8%-4.0%
Marathonbet1.6859.5%54.8%-4.7%
10Bet1.6461.0%54.8%-6.2%
Over 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +4.7%2.0548.8%46.9%-1.9%
Betfair1.9551.3%46.9%-4.4%
Marathonbet1.9451.5%46.9%-4.6%
BetVictor1.9451.5%46.9%-4.6%
10Bet1.9152.4%46.9%-5.5%
Under 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +0.7%1.7557.1%53.1%-4.0%
Marathonbet1.7557.1%53.1%-4.0%
Betfair1.7557.1%53.1%-4.0%
BetVictor1.7457.5%53.1%-4.4%
10Bet1.7058.8%53.1%-5.7%
Yes
BTTS
BetfairBest price +2.3%1.9152.4%49.3%-3.1%
BetVictor1.8753.5%49.3%-4.2%
William Hill1.8554.1%49.3%-4.8%
Marathonbet1.8454.3%49.3%-5.0%
No
BTTS
William HillBest price +0.8%1.8354.6%50.7%-3.9%
BetVictor1.8354.6%50.7%-3.9%
Marathonbet1.8055.6%50.7%-4.9%
Betfair1.8055.6%50.7%-4.9%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
10BetBest price +5.1%2.1047.6%0.0%-47.6%
William Hill2.0050.0%0.0%-50.0%
Betfair2.0050.0%0.0%-50.0%
BetVictor2.0050.0%0.0%-50.0%
Bet3651.9551.3%0.0%-51.3%
Marathonbet1.9451.5%0.0%-51.5%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +5.1%1.3076.9%0.0%-76.9%
BetVictor1.2580.0%0.0%-80.0%
Marathonbet1.2381.3%0.0%-81.3%
Bet3651.2282.0%0.0%-82.0%
Betfair1.2282.0%0.0%-82.0%
10Bet1.2083.3%0.0%-83.3%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
Bet365Best price +2.3%1.1884.7%0.0%-84.7%
William Hill1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Betfair1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
BetVictor1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Marathonbet1.1289.3%0.0%-89.3%
10Bet1.1190.1%0.0%-90.1%

Model reasoning

Navbahor at home has a stronger overall record than Nasaf on the road, with 9W 4D 4L versus Nasaf’s 6W 7D 4L away. Navbahor also has the edge in goal difference, scoring 28 and conceding 17 compared with Nasaf’s 20 scored and 16 conceded, which supports a slight home advantage. Recent form leans toward Navbahor as well, with DDWWW in their latest matches compared to Nasaf’s DWWDL. That combination of better home results and more consistently positive recent results helps explain why a home win is favored. The match profile looks fairly balanced in scoring. Both teams have similar defensive output overall (Navbahor 17 conceded, Nasaf 16 conceded), and the probabilities suggest only a modest likelihood of goals going over 2.5 (46.9%) while both teams scoring is also close to even (49.3%). With home win probability at 54.8% and away win at 19.6%, the lean is toward Navbahor, but the draw probability remains meaningful at 25.6%. This keeps the outlook supportive rather than certain, aligning with the low-risk home-win stance.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Navbahor predictions · Nasaf predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.