Premier League
Pre-match
High risk

Wadi Degla vs Masr

Fri, Aug 21, 02:00 PMPetrosport Stadium

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 53/100

Model verdict
High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Wadi Degla (DWDDW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 0.9 for Masr (WWDDD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 53/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

53/100

Confidence
53/100

Strongest cover

1X

74.7% probability

Risk classification

High

29.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

WD win45.7%
Draw29%
M win25.3%

Goals

Over 1.566.5%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Wadi Degla

9/15 recent form points

DWDDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.27
Shots on target
Unavailable

Masr

9/15 recent form points

WWDDD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.18
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Masr 0-2 Wadi Degla

2026-06-08T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Wadi Degla 2-2 Masr

2026-05-21T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Masr 1-2 Wadi Degla

2025-08-25T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Masr 3-1 Wadi Degla

2023-06-09T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Wadi Degla 0-1 Masr

2023-01-13T13:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Wadi Degla 1-0 Masr

2022-06-03T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Masr 1-2 Wadi Degla

2022-01-14T13:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Wadi Degla 2-1 Masr

2020-08-30T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Wadi Degla 1-2 Masr

2020-02-16T13:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Masr 1-0 Wadi Degla

2019-11-26T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Wadi Degla have scored 42 and conceded 29 in 33 matches, with 11 clean sheets, which points to a generally controlled defensive profile at home. Their recent form includes two wins and three draws in the last five games (DWDDW), suggesting they can avoid heavy defeats and keep matches from opening up too much. Masr’s away record is 12W 13D 8L with 39 goals scored and 31 conceded, also with 11 clean sheets overall. Their last five results are steadier (WWDDD), which supports the idea that they are more likely to manage games rather than chase high-scoring outcomes. The goal market leans slightly toward fewer goals: the probability for over 2.5 goals is 39.0%, while both teams to score is 45.4%. With Wadi Degla’s defensive concession rate and Masr’s tendency toward draws, the under 2.5 goals angle fits the matchup, though the confidence is only moderate (53) and the risk is high given the relatively close scoring probabilities.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 13:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Wadi Degla predictions · Masr predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.