Second League
Pre-match
High risk

El Seka El Hadid vs Tersana

Fri, Aug 21, 01:30 PMAl-Sekka Al-Hadid Stadium

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 50/100

Model verdict
High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

El Seka El Hadid (WLLDD) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 0.9 for Tersana (DWDDD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 50/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

50/100

Confidence
50/100

Strongest cover

1X

71.5% probability

Risk classification

High

33.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

52 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

ESE win38.1%
Draw33.4%
T win28.5%

Goals

Over 1.559.8%
Over 2.530.4%
Under 2.569.6%

Both teams to score

Yes39.7%
No60.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

El Seka El Hadid

5/15 recent form points

WLLDD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.82
Shots on target
Unavailable

Tersana

7/15 recent form points

DWDDD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.91
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/7 and Over 2.5 in 2/7.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 21, 10:22 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Tersana 1-2 El Seka El Hadid

2026-01-08T13:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

El Seka El Hadid 0-0 Tersana

2025-08-22T17:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Tersana 0-0 El Seka El Hadid

2025-04-09T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

El Seka El Hadid 0-1 Tersana

2024-12-03T13:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

El Seka El Hadid 0-0 Tersana

2023-05-19T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Tersana 1-2 El Seka El Hadid

2022-02-25T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

El Seka El Hadid 0-2 Tersana

2021-10-29T14:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Away
1X2
William HillBest price +6.2%3.3030.3%28.5%-1.8%
Betfair3.2530.8%28.5%-2.3%
Marathonbet3.2031.3%28.5%-2.8%
Bet3653.0033.3%28.5%-4.8%
10Bet2.9533.9%28.5%-5.4%
Unibet2.9533.9%28.5%-5.4%
Draw
1X2
MarathonbetBest price +3.9%2.7836.0%33.4%-2.6%
10Bet2.7037.0%33.4%-3.6%
Betfair2.7037.0%33.4%-3.6%
Unibet2.6537.7%33.4%-4.3%
Bet3652.6238.2%33.4%-4.8%
William Hill2.6038.5%33.4%-5.1%
Home
1X2
Bet365Best price +4.7%2.5040.0%38.1%-1.9%
10Bet2.4540.8%38.1%-2.7%
Unibet2.4341.2%38.1%-3.1%
William Hill2.3842.0%38.1%-3.9%
Betfair2.3043.5%38.1%-5.4%
Marathonbet2.2744.1%38.1%-6.0%
Over 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +7.2%3.2530.8%30.4%-0.4%
Unibet3.0033.3%30.4%-2.9%
Betfair3.0033.3%30.4%-2.9%
Marathonbet2.8834.7%30.4%-4.3%
Under 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +1.1%1.3375.2%69.6%-5.6%
Betfair1.3375.2%69.6%-5.6%
Marathonbet1.3275.8%69.6%-6.2%
Unibet1.2878.1%69.6%-8.5%
Yes
BTTS
UnibetBest price +1.5%2.3542.6%39.7%-2.9%
Marathonbet2.3143.3%39.7%-3.6%
William Hill2.3043.5%39.7%-3.8%
Betfair2.3043.5%39.7%-3.8%
No
BTTS
William HillBest price +3.0%1.5763.7%60.3%-3.4%
Betfair1.5763.7%60.3%-3.4%
Marathonbet1.5066.7%60.3%-6.4%
Unibet1.4668.5%60.3%-8.2%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +3.8%1.5365.4%0.0%-65.4%
Betfair1.5066.7%0.0%-66.7%
Marathonbet1.4967.1%0.0%-67.1%
10Bet1.4867.6%0.0%-67.6%
Bet3651.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Unibet1.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +4.9%1.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Bet3651.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
Betfair1.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
Unibet1.3474.6%0.0%-74.6%
10Bet1.3375.2%0.0%-75.2%
Marathonbet1.3375.2%0.0%-75.2%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
William HillBest price +1.7%1.3076.9%0.0%-76.9%
Bet3651.3076.9%0.0%-76.9%
10Bet1.2878.1%0.0%-78.1%
Unibet1.2878.1%0.0%-78.1%
Marathonbet1.2679.4%0.0%-79.4%
Betfair1.2580.0%0.0%-80.0%

Model reasoning

El Seka El Hadid have scored 28 goals in 34 matches and conceded 33, which points to relatively low scoring overall. They also have 15 clean sheets, suggesting they can keep games from turning into high-scoring affairs, even if their recent form includes some losses. Tersana’s scoring is also modest at 31 goals in 34 matches, with 32 conceded. Their 12 clean sheets add another sign that both sides can manage defensive structure, and their recent form (DWDDD) leans toward avoiding defeats rather than producing frequent goals. With both teams’ season goal totals sitting in the low-to-mid range and clean sheets being fairly common, the under 2.5 goals angle looks reasonable. The probabilities provided also align with this lean, with over 2.5 goals at 30.4% versus under 2.5 being the implied alternative. That said, the match still has a meaningful chance of goals because both teams to score is listed at 39.7%, so a 2-1 or similar outcome is plausible. With confidenceScore at 50 and riskLevel marked High, the under bet is more of a cautious lean than a strong conviction.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: El Seka El Hadid predictions · Tersana predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.