Youth Championship
Pre-match
Medium risk

Chertanovo U20 vs Spartak Moskva U19

Fri, Aug 21, 02:00 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 75/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Chertanovo U20 (DLLLL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.7 for Spartak Moskva U19 (LWWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 75/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

75/100

Confidence
75/100

Strongest cover

X2

79.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

4 sources

33 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CU win21%
Draw21.7%
SMU win57.3%

Goals

Over 1.584.5%
Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%

Both teams to score

Yes65.9%
No34.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Chertanovo U20

1/15 recent form points

DLLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.21
Shots on target
Unavailable

Spartak Moskva U19

7/15 recent form points

LWWDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.74
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/8 and Over 2.5 in 6/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 21, 08:35 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Spartak Moskva U19 3-0 Chertanovo U20

2026-04-10T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Chertanovo U20 2-0 Spartak Moskva U19

2024-10-04T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Spartak Moskva U19 3-2 Chertanovo U20

2024-08-23T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Chertanovo U20 3-1 Spartak Moskva U19

2023-08-04T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Spartak Moskva U19 2-0 Chertanovo U20

2023-04-21T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Chertanovo U20 2-3 Spartak Moskva U19

2023-03-31T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Spartak Moskva U19 3-1 Chertanovo U20

2022-05-20T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Chertanovo U20 4-1 Spartak Moskva U19

2022-04-15T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Home
1X2
1xBetBest price +1.5%4.3023.3%21.0%-2.3%
Dafabet4.3023.3%21.0%-2.3%
Marathonbet4.2523.5%21.0%-2.5%
Superbet4.1024.4%21.0%-3.4%
Draw
1X2
MarathonbetBest price +4.0%4.2023.8%21.7%-2.1%
1xBet4.2023.8%21.7%-2.1%
Dafabet3.9025.6%21.7%-3.9%
Superbet3.8526.0%21.7%-4.3%
Away
1X2
SuperbetBest price +1.9%1.6461.0%57.3%-3.7%
Dafabet1.6461.0%57.3%-3.7%
1xBet1.5962.9%57.3%-5.6%
Marathonbet1.5763.7%57.3%-6.4%
Under 2.5
Totals
MarathonbetBest price +1.3%2.8834.7%32.1%-2.6%
1xBet2.8834.7%32.1%-2.6%
Superbet2.7736.1%32.1%-4.0%
Over 2.5
Totals
SuperbetBest price +1.5%1.3574.1%67.9%-6.2%
Marathonbet1.3275.8%67.9%-7.9%
1xBet1.3275.8%67.9%-7.9%
No
BTTS
1xBetBest price +1.1%2.7336.6%34.1%-2.5%
Superbet2.7037.0%34.1%-2.9%
Marathonbet2.6737.5%34.1%-3.4%
Yes
BTTS
SuperbetBest price +1.0%1.4170.9%65.9%-5.0%
Marathonbet1.3971.9%65.9%-6.0%
1xBet1.3971.9%65.9%-6.0%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
MarathonbetBest price +1.9%2.1247.2%0.0%-47.2%
1xBet2.1247.2%0.0%-47.2%
Superbet2.0050.0%0.0%-50.0%
Home or Away
Double Chance
SuperbetBest price +1.2%1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Marathonbet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
1xBet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
SuperbetBest price +1.2%1.1686.2%0.0%-86.2%
Marathonbet1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%
1xBet1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%

Model reasoning

Spartak Moskva U19 look more likely to create the better chance volume, with 33 goals in 19 matches compared to Chertanovo U20’s 23. Spartak also have a stronger overall record (6W 8D 5L vs 4W 5D 10L), which supports the idea that the away side can push the game toward multiple scoring moments. Defensively, both teams have been vulnerable enough to keep goals in play. Chertanovo have conceded 44 in 19 matches and only 2 clean sheets, while Spartak have conceded 36 with 5 clean sheets. That combination suggests a reasonable chance that at least three total goals are scored, rather than a low-scoring script. The recent form also leans toward goals. Chertanovo’s latest run is DLLLL, indicating they’ve struggled to control matches, while Spartak’s form includes two wins in their last five (LWWDL), which can help them convert pressure into goals. With Spartak’s edge in scoring and both sides conceding at a moderate rate, Over 2.5 goals aligns with the provided probabilities (67.9%). Both teams to score is also relatively likely (65.9%), so the match profile points more toward an open game than a tight, one-sided affair.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Chertanovo U20 predictions · Spartak Moskva U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.