Chertanovo U20 vs Spartak Moskva U19
AI prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
Confidence 75/100
Over 2.5 Goals
Chertanovo U20 (DLLLL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.7 for Spartak Moskva U19 (LWWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 75/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
75/100
Strongest cover
X2
79.0% probability
Risk classification
Medium
21.7% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
4 sources
33 price observations
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Chertanovo U20
1/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.21
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Spartak Moskva U19
7/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.74
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/8 and Over 2.5 in 6/8.
Price interpretation
Value read
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2026 season
- Odds timestamp
- Aug 21, 08:35 AM UTC
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · odds available
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- Medium · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Spartak Moskva U19 3-0 Chertanovo U20
2026-04-10T14:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Chertanovo U20 2-0 Spartak Moskva U19
2024-10-04T18:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Spartak Moskva U19 3-2 Chertanovo U20
2024-08-23T14:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Chertanovo U20 3-1 Spartak Moskva U19
2023-08-04T16:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Spartak Moskva U19 2-0 Chertanovo U20
2023-04-21T16:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Chertanovo U20 2-3 Spartak Moskva U19
2023-03-31T15:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Spartak Moskva U19 3-1 Chertanovo U20
2022-05-20T17:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Chertanovo U20 4-1 Spartak Moskva U19
2022-04-15T12:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home 1X2 | 1xBetBest price +1.5% | 4.30 | 23.3% | 21.0% | -2.3% |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 23.3% | 21.0% | -2.3% | |
| Marathonbet | 4.25 | 23.5% | 21.0% | -2.5% | |
| Superbet | 4.10 | 24.4% | 21.0% | -3.4% | |
Draw 1X2 | MarathonbetBest price +4.0% | 4.20 | 23.8% | 21.7% | -2.1% |
| 1xBet | 4.20 | 23.8% | 21.7% | -2.1% | |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 25.6% | 21.7% | -3.9% | |
| Superbet | 3.85 | 26.0% | 21.7% | -4.3% | |
Away 1X2 | SuperbetBest price +1.9% | 1.64 | 61.0% | 57.3% | -3.7% |
| Dafabet | 1.64 | 61.0% | 57.3% | -3.7% | |
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 62.9% | 57.3% | -5.6% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 63.7% | 57.3% | -6.4% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | MarathonbetBest price +1.3% | 2.88 | 34.7% | 32.1% | -2.6% |
| 1xBet | 2.88 | 34.7% | 32.1% | -2.6% | |
| Superbet | 2.77 | 36.1% | 32.1% | -4.0% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | SuperbetBest price +1.5% | 1.35 | 74.1% | 67.9% | -6.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 75.8% | 67.9% | -7.9% | |
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 75.8% | 67.9% | -7.9% | |
No BTTS | 1xBetBest price +1.1% | 2.73 | 36.6% | 34.1% | -2.5% |
| Superbet | 2.70 | 37.0% | 34.1% | -2.9% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 37.5% | 34.1% | -3.4% | |
Yes BTTS | SuperbetBest price +1.0% | 1.41 | 70.9% | 65.9% | -5.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 71.9% | 65.9% | -6.0% | |
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 71.9% | 65.9% | -6.0% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price +1.9% | 2.12 | 47.2% | 0.0% | -47.2% |
| 1xBet | 2.12 | 47.2% | 0.0% | -47.2% | |
| Superbet | 2.00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | -50.0% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | SuperbetBest price +1.2% | 1.17 | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5% |
| Marathonbet | 1.15 | 87.0% | 0.0% | -87.0% | |
| 1xBet | 1.15 | 87.0% | 0.0% | -87.0% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | SuperbetBest price +1.2% | 1.16 | 86.2% | 0.0% | -86.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 87.7% | 0.0% | -87.7% | |
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 87.7% | 0.0% | -87.7% |
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
More predictions
Team hubs: Chertanovo U20 predictions · Spartak Moskva U19 predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.