Super League
Pre-match
Medium risk

Navbahor vs Bunyodkor

Fri, Aug 14, 02:00 PMMarkaziy Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 76/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

Home Win

Navbahor (LDDWW) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 0.9 for Bunyodkor (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence
76/100

Strongest cover

1X

88.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

19.8% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win68.2%
Draw19.8%
B win12%

Goals

Over 1.572.6%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Navbahor

8/15 recent form points

LDDWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.50
Shots on target
Unavailable

Bunyodkor

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.07
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 8/10 and Over 2.5 in 9/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 14, 12:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Bunyodkor 2-1 Navbahor

2026-04-29T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Navbahor 0-2 Bunyodkor

2025-10-18T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bunyodkor 2-3 Navbahor

2025-05-18T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Navbahor 2-2 Bunyodkor

2024-08-19T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bunyodkor 2-2 Navbahor

2024-03-17T14:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Navbahor 3-0 Bunyodkor

2023-11-11T13:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Bunyodkor 1-5 Navbahor

2023-05-22T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bunyodkor 2-1 Navbahor

2022-10-01T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Navbahor 2-1 Bunyodkor

2022-05-06T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Navbahor 2-1 Bunyodkor

2021-10-17T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Away
1X2
BetfairBest price +7.1%7.5013.3%12.0%-1.3%
BetVictor7.5013.3%12.0%-1.3%
Marathonbet7.2013.9%12.0%-1.9%
William Hill7.0014.3%12.0%-2.3%
10Bet6.8014.7%12.0%-2.7%
Bet3656.0016.7%12.0%-4.7%
Draw
1X2
BetfairBest price +6.2%4.6021.7%19.8%-1.9%
Marathonbet4.4022.7%19.8%-2.9%
BetVictor4.4022.7%19.8%-2.9%
10Bet4.2023.8%19.8%-4.0%
William Hill4.2023.8%19.8%-4.0%
Bet3654.2023.8%19.8%-4.0%
Home
1X2
Bet365Best price +3.4%1.4071.4%68.2%-3.2%
10Bet1.3673.5%68.2%-5.3%
William Hill1.3673.5%68.2%-5.3%
BetVictor1.3673.5%68.2%-5.3%
Marathonbet1.3474.6%68.2%-6.4%
Betfair1.3076.9%68.2%-8.7%
Under 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +1.4%2.1047.6%45.0%-2.6%
Betfair2.1047.6%45.0%-2.6%
BetVictor2.1047.6%45.0%-2.6%
Marathonbet2.0648.5%45.0%-3.5%
10Bet2.0050.0%45.0%-5.0%
Over 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +2.2%1.7058.8%55.0%-3.8%
Marathonbet1.6759.9%55.0%-4.9%
10Bet1.6560.6%55.0%-5.6%
Betfair1.6560.6%55.0%-5.6%
BetVictor1.6560.6%55.0%-5.6%
Yes
BTTS
BetfairBest price +2.6%1.9551.3%48.3%-3.0%
Marathonbet1.9052.6%48.3%-4.3%
BetVictor1.9052.6%48.3%-4.3%
William Hill1.8554.1%48.3%-5.8%
No
BTTS
William HillBest price +1.4%1.8055.6%51.7%-3.9%
BetVictor1.8055.6%51.7%-3.9%
Marathonbet1.7557.1%51.7%-5.4%
Betfair1.7557.1%51.7%-5.4%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
BetfairBest price +6.4%3.0033.3%0.0%-33.3%
10Bet2.9034.5%0.0%-34.5%
BetVictor2.8834.7%0.0%-34.7%
William Hill2.8035.7%0.0%-35.7%
Marathonbet2.7436.5%0.0%-36.5%
Bet3652.6038.5%0.0%-38.5%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +3.1%1.1884.7%0.0%-84.7%
Bet3651.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Betfair1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%
Marathonbet1.1388.5%0.0%-88.5%
BetVictor1.1388.5%0.0%-88.5%
10Bet1.1289.3%0.0%-89.3%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
William HillBest price +2.0%1.0892.6%0.0%-92.6%
Bet3651.0892.6%0.0%-92.6%
BetVictor1.0793.5%0.0%-93.5%
Betfair1.0694.3%0.0%-94.3%
10Bet1.0397.1%0.0%-97.1%
Marathonbet1.0397.1%0.0%-97.1%

Model reasoning

Navbahor at home has been more consistent than Bunyodkor, with an 8W 4D 4L record and a stronger goal profile of 24 scored versus 14 conceded. They also have 6 clean sheets, which suggests they can limit opponents at their ground. Bunyodkor’s away record is weaker, with 6W 1D 8L and a low scoring output of 16 goals while conceding 19. Their recent form is also poor, shown by five straight losses, which points to limited attacking momentum heading into this matchup. The overall scoring outlook is mixed but slightly favorable for a home win scenario, with over 2.5 goals at 55.0% and both teams to score at 48.3%. That combination implies a game that could be decided by Navbahor’s ability to control chances rather than a guaranteed high-scoring exchange. Given the home advantage and Navbahor’s better season record, a home win is the lean, but the medium risk remains because Bunyodkor can still keep games close if Navbahor fails to convert their chances.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 14 Aug 2026 13:04 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Navbahor predictions · Bunyodkor predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.