Pre-match

Medium risk

Spartak Moskva U19 vs CSKA Moskva U19

Fri, Aug 14, 03:00 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 73/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Spartak Moskva U19 (DLWWD) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.9 for CSKA Moskva U19 (WLWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 73/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

73/100

Confidence

73/100

Strongest cover

90.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

17.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

2 sources

18 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SMU win9.4%

Draw17.4%

CMU win73.2%

Goals

Over 1.587.1%

Over 2.571.1%

Under 2.528.9%

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%

No39.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Spartak Moskva U19

8/15 recent form points

DLWWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

CSKA Moskva U19

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 3.06
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 14, 12:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

CSKA Moskva U19 2-0 Spartak Moskva U19

2026-04-03T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

CSKA Moskva U19 3-2 Spartak Moskva U19

2025-11-07T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Spartak Moskva U19 1-0 CSKA Moskva U19

2025-07-18T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Spartak Moskva U19 1-3 CSKA Moskva U19

2024-11-01T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

CSKA Moskva U19 4-2 Spartak Moskva U19

2024-09-20T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Spartak Moskva U19 1-2 CSKA Moskva U19

2023-10-27T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Spartak Moskva U19 2-1 CSKA Moskva U19

2022-11-04T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

CSKA Moskva U19 3-3 Spartak Moskva U19

2022-09-02T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Spartak Moskva U19 0-1 CSKA Moskva U19

2021-12-03T12:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

CSKA Moskva U19 3-0 Spartak Moskva U19

2021-09-10T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.9%	9.25	10.8%	9.4%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	8.90	11.2%	9.4%	-1.8%
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price	4.90	20.4%	17.4%	-3.0%
	1xBet	4.90	20.4%	17.4%	-3.0%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.4%	1.27	78.7%	73.2%	-5.5%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	73.2%	-6.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	3.14	31.8%	28.9%	-2.9%
	1xBet	3.14	31.8%	28.9%	-2.9%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.27	78.7%	71.1%	-7.6%
	1xBet	1.27	78.7%	71.1%	-7.6%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.9%	2.29	43.7%	39.9%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	2.25	44.4%	39.9%	-4.5%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.54	64.9%	60.1%	-4.8%
	1xBet	1.54	64.9%	60.1%	-4.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	3.18	31.4%	0.0%	-31.4%
	1xBet	3.18	31.4%	0.0%	-31.4%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	1xBet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%

Model reasoning

CSKA Moskva U19 look stronger in overall results and goal performance. They have 13 wins from 18 matches versus Spartak’s 6 wins, and CSKA’s goal difference is notably better with 55 scored and 23 conceded compared to Spartak’s 33 scored and 34 conceded. The recent form also leans toward CSKA. Spartak’s latest run is DLWWD, which includes a loss and only moderate momentum, while CSKA’s latest form is WLWWW, showing consistent results and fewer defensive lapses. With CSKA conceding less and keeping more clean sheets (7 versus Spartak’s 5), the away win scenario is favored. The probabilities provided reflect this tilt, with CSKA at 73.2% for the away win and 71.1% for over 2.5 goals. There’s still some uncertainty because Spartak’s record includes draws and they have not been completely shut out, so a draw or a lower-scoring game remains possible. That’s why the confidence is relatively high but not extreme, matching the medium risk level.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 14 Aug 2026 14:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Spartak Moskva U19 predictions · CSKA Moskva U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.