Pre-match

Medium risk

Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm

Fri, Aug 14, 03:00 PMDinamo Samarkand Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 74/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Dinamo Samarqand (WWWDL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.1 for Xorazm (LLWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 74/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

74/100

Confidence

74/100

Strongest cover

77.5% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

DS win51.1%

Draw26.4%

X win22.5%

Goals

Over 1.577%

Over 2.547.9%

Under 2.552.1%

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%

No47.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Dinamo Samarqand

10/15 recent form points

WWWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.56
Shots on target: Unavailable

Xorazm

6/15 recent form points

LLWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.88
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/3 and Over 2.5 in 3/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 14, 12:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Xorazm 2-1 Dinamo Samarqand

2026-04-03T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dinamo Samarqand 3-1 Xorazm

2025-10-30T14:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Xorazm 1-2 Dinamo Samarqand

2025-06-15T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +8.9%	4.20	23.8%	22.5%	-1.3%
	William Hill	3.90	25.6%	22.5%	-3.1%
	BetVictor	3.90	25.6%	22.5%	-3.1%
	Betfair	3.80	26.3%	22.5%	-3.8%
	Bet365	3.75	26.7%	22.5%	-4.2%
	10Bet	3.60	27.8%	22.5%	-5.3%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.4%	3.40	29.4%	26.4%	-3.0%
	Betfair	3.40	29.4%	26.4%	-3.0%
	BetVictor	3.40	29.4%	26.4%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	3.32	30.1%	26.4%	-3.7%
	10Bet	3.30	30.3%	26.4%	-3.9%
	William Hill	3.10	32.3%	26.4%	-5.9%
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +1.7%	1.85	54.1%	51.1%	-3.0%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	51.1%	-3.0%
	William Hill	1.83	54.6%	51.1%	-3.5%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	51.1%	-3.5%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	51.1%	-4.5%
	Marathonbet	1.75	57.1%	51.1%	-6.0%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +8.5%	2.10	47.6%	47.9%	+0.3%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	47.9%	-4.5%
	10Bet	1.90	52.6%	47.9%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.89	52.9%	47.9%	-5.0%
	BetVictor	1.88	53.2%	47.9%	-5.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +2.0%	1.80	55.6%	52.1%	-3.5%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	52.1%	-3.5%
	BetVictor	1.79	55.9%	52.1%	-3.8%
	10Bet	1.73	57.8%	52.1%	-5.7%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	52.1%	-6.7%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +1.3%	1.95	51.3%	47.8%	-3.5%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	47.8%	-3.5%
	BetVictor	1.93	51.8%	47.8%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	47.8%	-5.7%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.7%	1.80	55.6%	52.2%	-3.4%
	BetVictor	1.78	56.2%	52.2%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	52.2%	-4.3%
	William Hill	1.73	57.8%	52.2%	-5.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +2.0%	1.85	54.1%	0.0%	-54.1%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	0.0%	-54.1%
	BetVictor	1.85	54.1%	0.0%	-54.1%
	Betfair	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.4%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.9%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	BetVictor	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

Dinamo Samarqand at home have a slightly better overall record than Xorazm, with 6 wins versus 5 across 16 matches. Their goal difference is also marginally stronger, scoring 25 and conceding 27, while Xorazm score 14 and concede 22, which suggests Dinamo may create a bit more attacking threat despite both sides being relatively close defensively. The recent form leans toward Dinamo for momentum, with WWWDL in their last five compared to Xorazm’s LLWLW. That pattern aligns with the pricing implied by the probabilities, where a Dinamo win is the most likely single outcome at 51.1%, with the draw still substantial at 26.4%. For goals, the match is slightly more balanced than one-sided: over 2.5 goals is at 47.9%, and both teams to score is at 52.2%. That points to a game that could be competitive and not guaranteed to produce many goals, even if Dinamo are favored. Overall, the home win call fits the small edge in form and the highest win probability, but the medium risk remains because the draw probability is meaningful and the goal indicators are near the middle rather than strongly over.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 14 Aug 2026 14:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.