Finished

High risk

Nancy vs Montpellier result & prediction review

0–1Full time

Fri, Aug 14, 06:45 PMStade Marcel Picot

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 58/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Nancy (DLWWL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 0.9 for Montpellier (DWWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 58/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

58/100

Confidence

58/100

Strongest cover

70.5% probability

Risk classification

High

30.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win40.1%

Draw30.4%

M win29.5%

Goals

Over 1.564.1%

Over 2.536.4%

Under 2.563.6%

Both teams to score

Yes43.7%

No56.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Nancy

7/15 recent form points

DLWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.60
Shots on target: Unavailable

Montpellier

8/15 recent form points

DWWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.80
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Nancy 0-1 Montpellier

2026-08-14T20:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nancy 0-3 Montpellier

2026-03-06T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Montpellier 4-1 Nancy

2025-10-25T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Montpellier 3-2 Nancy

2019-10-30T21:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nancy 0-3 Montpellier

2017-02-11T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Montpellier 0-0 Nancy

2016-11-26T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Montpellier 1-0 Nancy

2013-02-16T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nancy 0-2 Montpellier

2012-09-29T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nancy 1-0 Montpellier

2012-03-17T19:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Montpellier 2-0 Nancy

2011-10-29T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Nancy vs Montpellier. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-1

Pre-kickoff call

Under 2.5 Goals · 57.6% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.2581 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Nancy predictions · Montpellier predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.