Live

High risk

Municipal Limeño vs Águila prediction

0–030′

Thu, Sep 10, 01:00 AM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 52/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Municipal Limeño (LLWWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.1 for Águila (LLLWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 52/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

52/100

Confidence

52/100

Strongest cover

70.5% probability

Risk classification

High

29.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

2 sources

15 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

ML win35.3%

Draw29.5%

Á win35.2%

Goals

Over 1.578.5%

Over 2.545.9%

Under 2.554.1%

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%

No48.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Municipal Limeño

9/15 recent form points

LLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Águila

4/15 recent form points

LLLWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Sep 09, 08:50 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Municipal Limeño 2-0 Águila

2026-04-05T03:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Águila 1-0 Municipal Limeño

2026-02-08T22:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Municipal Limeño 1-2 Águila

2025-10-19T23:20:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Águila 2-1 Municipal Limeño

2025-08-17T23:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Municipal Limeño 0-2 Águila

2025-05-03T23:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Águila 0-2 Municipal Limeño

2025-03-09T22:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Municipal Limeño 0-2 Águila

2024-11-25T01:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Águila 3-1 Municipal Limeño

2024-09-19T03:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Municipal Limeño 0-1 Águila

2024-04-07T03:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Águila 1-0 Municipal Limeño

2024-01-28T22:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +3.6%	3.14	31.8%	29.5%	-2.3%
	Pinnacle	2.92	34.2%	29.5%	-4.7%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +3.0%	2.74	36.5%	35.3%	-1.2%
	Marathonbet	2.58	38.8%	35.3%	-3.5%
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +2.8%	2.60	38.5%	35.2%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.46	40.7%	35.2%	-5.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +1.7%	2.08	48.1%	45.9%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	2.01	49.8%	45.9%	-3.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +0.3%	1.71	58.5%	54.1%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	1.70	58.8%	54.1%	-4.7%
No BTTS	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	48.4%	-5.1%
Yes BTTS	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	51.6%	-4.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Marathonbet	1.42	70.4%	0.0%	-70.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Marathonbet	1.39	71.9%	0.0%	-71.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Municipal Limeño vs Águila. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 09 Sep 2026 23:41 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Municipal Limeño predictions · Águila predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.