Liga de Expansión MX
Finished
Medium risk

Monarcas vs Correcaminos Uat

13Full time
Fri, Aug 21, 01:00 AMEstadio Morelos

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 62/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Monarcas (WLWWL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.5 for Correcaminos Uat (DWWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 62/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

62/100

Confidence
62/100

Strongest cover

12

75.7% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

M win43.3%
Draw24.3%
CU win32.4%

Goals

Over 1.584.5%
Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

Both teams to score

Yes65.2%
No34.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Monarcas

9/15 recent form points

WLWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.20
Shots on target
Unavailable

Correcaminos Uat

10/15 recent form points

DWWLW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.80
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Monarcas 1-3 Correcaminos Uat

2026-08-21T03:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Monarcas 3-0 Correcaminos Uat

2026-01-11T02:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Correcaminos Uat 1-1 Monarcas

2025-08-02T03:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Monarcas 3-2 Correcaminos Uat

2025-03-30T00:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Correcaminos Uat 3-0 Monarcas

2024-10-11T03:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Correcaminos Uat 3-1 Monarcas

2024-02-21T04:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Monarcas 2-0 Correcaminos Uat

2023-08-14T01:05:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Correcaminos Uat 1-1 Monarcas

2023-02-15T00:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Monarcas 1-0 Correcaminos Uat

2022-08-05T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Correcaminos Uat 1-1 Monarcas

2022-02-09T02:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Monarcas at home have scored 11 in 5 matches and conceded 8, with no clean sheets so far. Their recent form includes two wins and one loss in the last five (WLWWL), suggesting they can find goals but also allow them. Correcaminos UAT away have scored 14 in 5 matches and conceded 9, also with no clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed but still productive offensively (DWWLW), which supports the idea that both sides are likely to contribute goals. With Monarcas and Correcaminos both showing relatively high scoring and conceding rates, the matchup leans toward both teams scoring. The probabilities provided reflect this, with BTTS Yes at 65.2% and over 2.5 goals at 63.7%, while the win outcomes are closer than a one-sided game. So BTTS Yes looks like the most consistent angle here, with medium risk given the draw possibility (draw 24.3%) and the fact that neither team has recorded a clean sheet, which can still vary match to match.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-3

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 64.3% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.5697 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:47 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Monarcas predictions · Correcaminos Uat predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.