Finished

Low risk

Metalourg vs Pakhtakor II result & prediction review

1–0Full time

Mon, Sep 7, 01:30 PMMetallurg Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 78/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Low risk

Home Win

Metalourg (WWWWW) project at 2.5 expected goals versus 0.8 for Pakhtakor II (LWLWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 78/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

78/100

Confidence

78/100

Strongest cover

90.0% probability

Risk classification

Low

16.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

5 sources

39 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

M win73.8%

Draw16.2%

PI win10%

Goals

Over 1.584.4%

Over 2.564.8%

Under 2.535.2%

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%

No46.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Metalourg

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.37
Shots on target: Unavailable

Pakhtakor II

6/15 recent form points

LWLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.72
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Sep 07, 12:33 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Metalourg 1-0 Pakhtakor II

2026-09-07T15:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Pakhtakor II 0-5 Metalourg

2026-04-25T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +9.9%	8.65	11.6%	10.0%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	8.30	12.0%	10.0%	-2.0%
	Dafabet	7.80	12.8%	10.0%	-2.8%
	Betano	7.40	13.5%	10.0%	-3.5%
	Superbet	7.20	13.9%	10.0%	-3.9%
Draw 1X2	DafabetBest price +2.4%	5.20	19.2%	16.2%	-3.0%
	Superbet	5.10	19.6%	16.2%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	5.05	19.8%	16.2%	-3.6%
	1xBet	5.05	19.8%	16.2%	-3.6%
	Betano	5.00	20.0%	16.2%	-3.8%
Home 1X2	BetanoBest price +0.9%	1.29	77.5%	73.8%	-3.7%
	Dafabet	1.29	77.5%	73.8%	-3.7%
	Superbet	1.28	78.1%	73.8%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.27	78.7%	73.8%	-4.9%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	73.8%	-5.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	SuperbetBest price +1.6%	2.62	38.2%	35.2%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.56	39.1%	35.2%	-3.9%
	1xBet	2.56	39.1%	35.2%	-3.9%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +0.2%	1.40	71.4%	64.8%	-6.6%
	1xBet	1.40	71.4%	64.8%	-6.6%
	Superbet	1.39	71.9%	64.8%	-7.1%
No BTTS	SuperbetBest price +1.9%	2.00	50.0%	46.9%	-3.1%
	1xBet	1.96	51.0%	46.9%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	1.93	51.8%	46.9%	-4.9%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +0.4%	1.73	57.8%	53.1%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.72	58.1%	53.1%	-5.0%
	1xBet	1.72	58.1%	53.1%	-5.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +4.8%	3.15	31.7%	0.0%	-31.7%
	1xBet	3.15	31.7%	0.0%	-31.7%
	Superbet	3.00	33.3%	0.0%	-33.3%
	Betano	2.72	36.8%	0.0%	-36.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetanoBest price +2.5%	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Superbet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Marathonbet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	1xBet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetanoBest price +4.6%	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	Superbet	1.03	97.1%	0.0%	-97.1%
	Marathonbet	1.01	99.0%	0.0%	-99.0%
	1xBet	1.01	99.0%	0.0%	-99.0%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Metalourg vs Pakhtakor II. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: Low risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 78.8% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.0249 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:30 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Metalourg predictions · Pakhtakor II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.