Finished

High risk

Lyon vs Auxerre result & prediction review

3–1Full time

Fri, Sep 4, 05:00 PMGroupama Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 58/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Lyon (WWWLL) project at 2.4 expected goals versus 1.1 for Auxerre (DLWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 58/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

58/100

Confidence

58/100

Strongest cover

86.9% probability

Risk classification

High

17.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

L win69.2%

Draw17.7%

A win13.1%

Goals

Over 1.586.6%

Over 2.567.4%

Under 2.532.6%

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%

No39.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Lyon

9/15 recent form points

WWWLL

xG / match: 1.98
xGA / match: 1.39
Goals / match: 1.56
Shots on target: Unavailable

Auxerre

10/15 recent form points

DLWWW

xG / match: 1.46
xGA / match: 3.26
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

L derived xG

2.62

A derived xG

1.42

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 4.05. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 9/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Lyon 3-1 Auxerre

2026-09-04T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lyon 3-2 Auxerre

2026-04-25T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Auxerre 0-0 Lyon

2025-11-23T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Auxerre 1-3 Lyon

2025-04-13T20:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lyon 2-2 Auxerre

2024-10-27T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Auxerre 2-1 Lyon

2023-02-17T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lyon 2-1 Auxerre

2022-08-31T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lyon 2-1 Auxerre

2012-04-07T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Auxerre 0-3 Lyon

2011-11-27T17:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Auxerre 4-0 Lyon

2011-05-11T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Lyon vs Auxerre. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 64.1% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.0784 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 03 Sep 2026 23:48 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Lyon predictions · Auxerre predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.