Live

Low risk

Los Angeles FC II vs Tacoma Defiance

0–07′

Mon, Aug 17, 02:00 AMTitan Stadium

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 77/100

Model verdict

Low risk

BTTS Yes

Los Angeles FC II (LLWWL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.4 for Tacoma Defiance (WWWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Strongest cover

76.4% probability

Risk classification

Low

23.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LAF win49.3%

Draw23.6%

TD win27.1%

Goals

Over 1.582.4%

Over 2.565.3%

Under 2.534.7%

Both teams to score

Yes66.7%

No33.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Los Angeles FC II

6/15 recent form points

LLWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.71
Shots on target: Unavailable

Tacoma Defiance

12/15 recent form points

WWWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.45
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 9/10 and Over 2.5 in 8/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 17, 12:16 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Tacoma Defiance 4-1 Los Angeles FC II

2026-04-27T05:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 2-2 Los Angeles FC II

2026-03-02T04:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 4-2 Los Angeles FC II

2025-08-11T05:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Los Angeles FC II 2-3 Tacoma Defiance

2025-06-29T22:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Los Angeles FC II 3-2 Tacoma Defiance

2025-04-11T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Los Angeles FC II 1-2 Tacoma Defiance

2024-08-31T04:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 4-4 Los Angeles FC II

2024-07-20T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 2-0 Los Angeles FC II

2024-04-08T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Los Angeles FC II 2-1 Tacoma Defiance

2023-07-24T02:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 1-1 Los Angeles FC II

2023-05-27T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +3.1%	3.80	26.3%	23.6%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	3.76	26.6%	23.6%	-3.0%
	Bet365	3.75	26.7%	23.6%	-3.1%
	10Bet	3.65	27.4%	23.6%	-3.8%
	Unibet	3.65	27.4%	23.6%	-3.8%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	23.6%	-5.0%
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +3.6%	3.36	29.8%	27.1%	-2.7%
	10Bet	3.30	30.3%	27.1%	-3.2%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	27.1%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	27.1%	-3.2%
	Bet365	3.25	30.8%	27.1%	-3.7%
	Unibet	2.95	33.9%	27.1%	-6.8%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +6.5%	1.98	50.5%	49.3%	-1.2%
	10Bet	1.85	54.1%	49.3%	-4.8%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	49.3%	-4.8%
	Bet365	1.83	54.6%	49.3%	-5.3%
	Betfair	1.83	54.6%	49.3%	-5.3%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	49.3%	-5.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +3.4%	2.75	36.4%	34.7%	-1.7%
	Unibet	2.65	37.7%	34.7%	-3.0%
	Bet365	2.62	38.2%	34.7%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	2.62	38.2%	34.7%	-3.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.0%	1.44	69.4%	65.3%	-4.1%
	Betfair	1.40	71.4%	65.3%	-6.1%
	Marathonbet	1.38	72.5%	65.3%	-7.2%
	Unibet	1.37	73.0%	65.3%	-7.7%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +4.1%	2.88	34.7%	33.3%	-1.4%
	William Hill	2.75	36.4%	33.3%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.67	37.5%	33.3%	-4.2%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +1.0%	1.38	72.5%	66.7%	-5.8%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	66.7%	-6.8%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	66.7%	-6.8%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +3.9%	1.85	54.1%	0.0%	-54.1%
	Betfair	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
	Unibet	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.1%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Betfair	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Unibet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.7%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Los Angeles FC II have been fairly even in results at home, with 11 wins and 10 losses from 21 matches, and they’ve scored 36 goals while conceding 37. Their clean sheets are limited to 2, which suggests they often allow at least one goal when playing at home. Tacoma Defiance’s away record is also balanced, with 11 wins and 11 losses from 22 matches, and they’ve scored 32 while conceding 34. They have 5 clean sheets overall, but they still concede regularly enough that a scoring response from Los Angeles FC II looks plausible. With both teams’ goal profiles showing similar scoring and concession totals, the matchup leans toward both sides finding the net. The probabilities provided support this, with both teams to score at 66.7% and over 2.5 goals at 65.3%, making BTTS Yes the most consistent fit among the listed outcomes. The draw is also a meaningful possibility (23.6%), which aligns with the relatively close home/away win rates and the shared tendency to concede. Overall, the BTTS Yes call carries a low risk level given the 77 confidence score, though it’s not guaranteed.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sun, 16 Aug 2026 23:03 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Los Angeles FC II predictions · Tacoma Defiance predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.