Pre-match

High risk

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs CSKA Sofia II

Mon, Aug 17, 03:00 PMefbet Arena

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 51/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (WDLWL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.2 for CSKA Sofia II (WDLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 51/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

51/100

Confidence

51/100

Strongest cover

71.3% probability

Risk classification

High

28.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

56 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

C1B win36.1%

Draw28.7%

CSI win35.2%

Goals

Over 1.571.3%

Over 2.544.3%

Under 2.555.7%

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%

No49.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

7/15 recent form points

WDLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.19
Shots on target: Unavailable

CSKA Sofia II

10/15 recent form points

WDLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.78
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 17, 12:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3-0 CSKA Sofia II

2026-03-15T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

CSKA Sofia II 1-1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

2025-09-06T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +0.5%	3.10	32.3%	28.7%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	3.10	32.3%	28.7%	-3.6%
	Betfair	3.10	32.3%	28.7%	-3.6%
	1xBet	3.10	32.3%	28.7%	-3.6%
	Betano	3.10	32.3%	28.7%	-3.6%
	Unibet	3.00	33.3%	28.7%	-4.6%
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.1%	2.60	38.5%	35.2%	-3.3%
	Betfair	2.60	38.5%	35.2%	-3.3%
	Betano	2.55	39.2%	35.2%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	2.54	39.4%	35.2%	-4.2%
	1xBet	2.54	39.4%	35.2%	-4.2%
	Unibet	2.45	40.8%	35.2%	-5.6%
Home 1X2	BetanoBest price +1.7%	2.55	39.2%	36.1%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.52	39.7%	36.1%	-3.6%
	1xBet	2.52	39.7%	36.1%	-3.6%
	Unibet	2.50	40.0%	36.1%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.50	40.0%	36.1%	-3.9%
	Bet365	2.45	40.8%	36.1%	-4.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.2%	2.10	47.6%	44.3%	-3.3%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	44.3%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.08	48.1%	44.3%	-3.8%
	1xBet	2.08	48.1%	44.3%	-3.8%
	Betano	2.05	48.8%	44.3%	-4.5%
	Unibet	2.04	49.0%	44.3%	-4.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.2%	1.70	58.8%	55.7%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	1.65	60.6%	55.7%	-4.9%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	55.7%	-4.9%
	1xBet	1.65	60.6%	55.7%	-4.9%
	Betano	1.62	61.7%	55.7%	-6.0%
	Unibet	1.61	62.1%	55.7%	-6.4%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.2%	1.86	53.8%	49.6%	-4.2%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.6%	-4.5%
	Marathonbet	1.83	54.6%	49.6%	-5.0%
	Unibet	1.81	55.2%	49.6%	-5.6%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.1%	1.85	54.1%	50.4%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	1.81	55.2%	50.4%	-4.8%
	1xBet	1.81	55.2%	50.4%	-4.8%
	Unibet	1.78	56.2%	50.4%	-5.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +1.9%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betano	1.42	70.4%	0.0%	-70.4%
	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	1xBet	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Unibet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.1%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betano	1.42	70.4%	0.0%	-70.4%
	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	1xBet	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Unibet	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetanoBest price +2.3%	1.31	76.3%	0.0%	-76.3%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	1xBet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Unibet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%

Model reasoning

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have scored 38 goals in 32 matches and conceded 32, with 13 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed (WDLWL), which suggests they can keep games controlled at times, but they are not consistently producing high scoring output. CSKA Sofia II have scored more, 57 goals in 32 matches, while conceding 32 and keeping 12 clean sheets. Their recent form (WDLWW) is stronger, and that supports the idea that they can contribute to the scoring rather than being held scoreless. The goal-related probabilities lean toward a lower scoring outcome but not decisively. Over 2.5 goals is at 44.3%, while both teams to score is slightly more likely at 50.4%, which fits a scenario where goals may come but a high total is less certain. With the match win probabilities close across all results (home 36.1%, draw 28.7%, away 35.2%), the under 2.5 goals call at 51 confidence looks like a modest edge rather than a clear one, so the risk is relatively high.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 17 Aug 2026 01:31 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.