Pre-match

Medium risk

Molde II vs Rosenborg II

Mon, Aug 17, 01:00 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 67/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Molde II (LWDLW) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 2 for Rosenborg II (DWDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 67/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

67/100

Confidence

67/100

Strongest cover

81.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

18.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

48 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

MI win25.6%

Draw18.9%

RI win55.5%

Goals

Over 1.591.9%

Over 2.580.4%

Under 2.519.6%

Both teams to score

Yes77.9%

No22.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Molde II

7/15 recent form points

LWDLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.87
Shots on target: Unavailable

Rosenborg II

11/15 recent form points

DWDWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.27
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/3 and Over 2.5 in 3/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 17, 12:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Rosenborg II 4-0 Molde II

2026-06-13T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Molde II 2-1 Rosenborg II

2025-10-26T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Rosenborg II 3-0 Molde II

2025-04-14T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +9.3%	5.00	20.0%	18.9%	-1.1%
	Betfair	4.60	21.7%	18.9%	-2.8%
	BetVictor	4.60	21.7%	18.9%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	4.50	22.2%	18.9%	-3.3%
	1xBet	4.50	22.2%	18.9%	-3.3%
	Unibet	4.25	23.5%	18.9%	-4.6%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +7.8%	3.80	26.3%	25.6%	-0.7%
	1xBet	3.62	27.6%	25.6%	-2.0%
	BetVictor	3.60	27.8%	25.6%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	3.58	27.9%	25.6%	-2.3%
	Unibet	3.35	29.9%	25.6%	-4.3%
	Bet365	3.20	31.3%	25.6%	-5.6%
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +1.2%	1.67	59.9%	55.5%	-4.4%
	BetVictor	1.67	59.9%	55.5%	-4.4%
	Unibet	1.66	60.2%	55.5%	-4.7%
	1xBet	1.66	60.2%	55.5%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.64	61.0%	55.5%	-5.5%
	Betfair	1.60	62.5%	55.5%	-7.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +2.1%	4.80	20.8%	19.6%	-1.2%
	1xBet	4.80	20.8%	19.6%	-1.2%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	19.6%	-2.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.9%	1.17	85.5%	80.4%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	80.4%	-8.9%
	1xBet	1.12	89.3%	80.4%	-8.9%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +1.2%	4.20	23.8%	22.1%	-1.7%
	1xBet	4.20	23.8%	22.1%	-1.7%
	Marathonbet	4.05	24.7%	22.1%	-2.6%
Yes BTTS	BetVictorBest price +0.6%	1.18	84.7%	77.9%	-6.8%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	77.9%	-7.6%
	1xBet	1.17	85.5%	77.9%	-7.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.7%	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	BetVictor	2.05	48.8%	0.0%	-48.8%
	Bet365	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Marathonbet	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	1xBet	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Unibet	1.89	52.9%	0.0%	-52.9%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +4.3%	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Unibet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	1xBet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +1.2%	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	BetVictor	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Unibet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	1xBet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Bet365	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%

Model reasoning

Rosenborg II’s away profile points toward a higher scoring game. They have conceded 23 goals in 15 matches, which is relatively low, and their recent form includes multiple wins, suggesting they can create chances and keep control even away from home. Molde II at home have been more open defensively, with 48 goals conceded in 15 matches and only 1 clean sheet. Their recent form is mixed, but the goal numbers imply they are more likely to allow at least one goal, which supports the over 2.5 goals angle. The matchup probabilities align with that: both teams to score is high at 77.9%, and the over 2.5 goals probability is 80.4%. With Rosenborg II also favored to win (55.5%), the game script that fits best is one where Rosenborg can score while Molde II still contribute offensively. Confidence is fairly solid (67) but not extreme, since Molde II’s record includes draws and losses that could also lead to a tighter scoreline. Still, the combination of Molde II’s defensive concession rate and Rosenborg II’s ability to score makes over 2.5 goals the most consistent read from these stats.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:08 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Molde II predictions · Rosenborg II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.