Live

Low risk

Los Angeles FC II vs Sporting KC II

2–045′

Fri, Aug 21, 02:00 AMTitan Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 77/100

Model verdict

Low risk

Home Win

Los Angeles FC II (LWWLW) project at 2.4 expected goals versus 1.3 for Sporting KC II (LWWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Strongest cover

80.3% probability

Risk classification

Low

20.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

46 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LAF win59.8%

Draw20.5%

SKI win19.7%

Goals

Over 1.588.4%

Over 2.568%

Under 2.532%

Both teams to score

Yes65.8%

No34.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Los Angeles FC II

9/15 recent form points

LWWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.82
Shots on target: Unavailable

Sporting KC II

6/15 recent form points

LWWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.36
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/6 and Over 2.5 in 5/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 12:24 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Los Angeles FC II 1-3 Sporting KC II

2025-07-28T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting KC II 0-3 Los Angeles FC II

2025-05-24T01:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting KC II 4-3 Los Angeles FC II

2024-10-06T22:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Los Angeles FC II 2-1 Sporting KC II

2024-09-08T22:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Los Angeles FC II 0-2 Sporting KC II

2023-06-19T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sporting KC II 2-1 Los Angeles FC II

2023-04-10T00:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +7.6%	4.60	21.7%	19.7%	-2.0%
	Betfair	4.50	22.2%	19.7%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	4.30	23.3%	19.7%	-3.6%
	10Bet	4.20	23.8%	19.7%	-4.1%
	Bet365	4.20	23.8%	19.7%	-4.1%
	Unibet	3.85	26.0%	19.7%	-6.3%
Draw 1X2	10BetBest price +4.7%	4.33	23.1%	20.5%	-2.6%
	Betfair	4.33	23.1%	20.5%	-2.6%
	Bet365	4.20	23.8%	20.5%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	4.10	24.4%	20.5%	-3.9%
	Unibet	3.95	25.3%	20.5%	-4.8%
	William Hill	3.90	25.6%	20.5%	-5.1%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +6.4%	1.66	60.2%	59.8%	-0.4%
	Marathonbet	1.57	63.7%	59.8%	-3.9%
	William Hill	1.55	64.5%	59.8%	-4.7%
	Bet365	1.55	64.5%	59.8%	-4.7%
	10Bet	1.53	65.4%	59.8%	-5.6%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	59.8%	-6.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +2.8%	2.92	34.2%	32.0%	-2.2%
	Unibet	2.85	35.1%	32.0%	-3.1%
	Bet365	2.75	36.4%	32.0%	-4.4%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.0%	1.40	71.4%	68.0%	-3.4%
	Unibet	1.33	75.2%	68.0%	-7.2%
	Marathonbet	1.31	76.3%	68.0%	-8.3%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +1.7%	2.71	36.9%	34.2%	-2.7%
	William Hill	2.62	38.2%	34.2%	-4.0%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.1%	1.40	71.4%	65.8%	-5.6%
	Marathonbet	1.37	73.0%	65.8%	-7.2%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +8.0%	2.38	42.0%	0.0%	-42.0%
	10Bet	2.35	42.6%	0.0%	-42.6%
	William Hill	2.25	44.4%	0.0%	-44.4%
	Bet365	2.20	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5%
	Marathonbet	2.11	47.4%	0.0%	-47.4%
	Unibet	1.93	51.8%	0.0%	-51.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.0%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Marathonbet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	10Bet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +0.9%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	10Bet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

Los Angeles FC II have a stronger overall record at 12W-0D-10L, while Sporting KC II are struggling away with 6W-0D-16L. The home side also has a more balanced goal profile, scoring 40 and conceding 40, compared with Sporting KC II’s 30 scored and 58 conceded. In recent form, Los Angeles FC II show more consistency with LWWLW, whereas Sporting KC II’s sequence is LWWLL, including more losses. That combination of better results and tighter goal difference supports the lean toward Los Angeles FC II. The goal outlook also favors a higher-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 68.0%, and both teams to score at 65.8%, which fits Sporting KC II conceding 58 goals while Los Angeles FC II have scored 40. With home win at 59.8% and away win at 19.7%, the matchup suggests Los Angeles FC II are more likely to take the points, though the draw probability of 20.5% keeps the outcome from looking fully one-sided.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:04 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Los Angeles FC II predictions · Sporting KC II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.